# Preparing for Hurricane Douglas



## KateL (Jul 26, 2020)

I cannot possibly shelter all my orchids, so I cut many of the blooms before the winds and heavy rain. Here’s a few.


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## Linus_Cello (Jul 26, 2020)

Where on Oahu are you and what is the expected path?

Stay safe!


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## KateL (Jul 26, 2020)

Linus_Cello said:


> Where on Oahu are you and what is the expected path?
> 
> Stay safe!


We’re up on Pacific Heights, the ridge between Nuuanu and Pauoa Valleys, looking down into Punchbowl (on a clear day). We’re hoping it weakens before it gets here, but might hit us as a Cat. 1. Heavy rains have begun, but the wind is not too bad yet.
Thanks Linus.


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## Djthomp28 (Jul 26, 2020)

I hope it weakens and the winds stay low. Sending positive thoughts your way. Stay safe.


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## abax (Jul 26, 2020)

I have a dear friend who lives on the big island and it appears the
hurricane is heading straight for it. Stay safe Kate. My friend
Yoshi lives in a huge high rise condo and I'm worried.


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## NYEric (Jul 27, 2020)

Good luck, stay safe. A friend of mine in Texas had her roof blown off Saturday night!


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## PeteM (Jul 27, 2020)

Looks like it came through and headed out to sea now.I hope you are well.. I'm sure you have lots to assess.. Looking forward to seeing you back online when you can get back up and running.


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## KateL (Jul 27, 2020)

Happy to report that Douglas turned north before doing any real damage!
Got a bit of un-prepping to do, but that’s a good thing. Thanks to all for the good wishes!
Kate


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## MaxC (Jul 27, 2020)

Glad you remained relatively unscathed!


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## Silverwhisp (Jul 27, 2020)

Ditto to the above reply! Good luck un-prepping!


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## Linus_Cello (Jul 27, 2020)

Did anyone try surfing at the pipeline as the storm passed?


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## KateL (Jul 27, 2020)

Linus_Cello said:


> Did anyone try surfing at the pipeline as the storm passed?


Of course - but not me!!!


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## SuperPaph (Jul 28, 2020)

It is good to listen you were not affected by the hurricane. I live in Cuba and have been into a 5 category, and always I listen "Hurricane" I stand on end.


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## KateL (Jul 28, 2020)

SuperPaph said:


> It is good to listen you were not affected by the hurricane. I live in Cuba and have been into a 5 category, and always I listen "Hurricane" I stand on end.


Wow, I pray I never see a Cat 5. I rode out a Cat 2 once, but was fortunate. Take care.


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## Linus_Cello (Jul 29, 2020)

I thought the following article was interesting in explaining why hurricanes (technically, isn't it cyclones in the Pacific Ocean) generally do not hit Hawaii (apologies in advance to the moderators, article discusses climate change):









EXTREME WEATHER: Hawaii barely avoided a hurricane. Its luck is fading


Hurricane Douglas made history on Monday as it skirted past Hawaii by coming closer to the island of Oahu than any hurricane in at least 60 years.




www.eenews.net





*EXTREME WEATHER*
*Hawaii barely avoided a hurricane. Its luck is fading*
Chelsea Harvey, E&E News reporterPublished: Wednesday, July 29, 2020

Hurricane Douglas is seen brushing the Hawaiian islands Sunday. Scientists say storms in the Pacific Ocean are influenced by climate change. NASA Worldview, Earth Observing System Data and Information System

Hurricane Douglas made history on Monday as it skirted past Hawaii by coming closer to the island of Oahu than any hurricane in at least 60 years.

The center of the storm passed 30 miles north of the island, home to Honolulu, the capital. The closest runner-up was Hurricane Dot in 1959, which came within 60 miles of Oahu.

Scientists say this kind of event could happen more often in the coming decades. Climate models suggest that hurricanes may become more active around the Hawaiian islands as the region continues to warm.

Douglas was a close call. As of Sunday evening, meteorologists were warning Hawaiian residents to prepare for a possible landfall.

In the end, the storm curved unexpectedly north and just missed the archipelago.


While Oahu has never been directly struck by the center of a hurricane — at least, not in recorded history — other Hawaiian islands have been hit. But it's an exceedingly rare event.

In fact, it's only happened twice since scientists began keeping records. Dot missed Oahu but struck Kauai in 1959, and Hurricane Iniki also struck Kauai in 1992.

While cyclones do sometimes pass close by the string of islands, bringing winds and rain, it's relatively uncommon for any of them to cause major damage.

There's a reason these events are so rare. For one thing, Hawaii is protected by a high-pressure system — a swirling atmospheric current — that helps redirect storms away from the islands.

Hawaii also sits in a dry region of the subtropics, surrounded by relatively cool waters, according to Hiroyuki Murakami, a hurricane expert with NOAA's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. These conditions often cause hurricanes to weaken as they approach the islands, he said in an interview.

But this could be gradually changing. Multiple studies have recently suggested that the Hawaiian islands may see more hurricane activity as temperatures rise in the central Pacific over the coming decades.

A 2013 study in _Nature Climate Change_, led by Murakami, found that hurricanes are likely to pass by the Hawaiian islands more often at the end of summer.

That's partly because hurricanes may form more frequently in that part of the ocean in the first place, the models suggested. But a bigger factor is that cyclones moving in from other parts of the Pacific will have a shot at getting close to the islands, instead of fizzling out or being shunted to the side as they approach.

A 2015 study in the _Journal of Climate_, led by NOAA scientist Thomas Knutson, also found that the region around Hawaii could experience more frequent hurricanes by the end of the century.

And a study published in _Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences_ in December, also led by Murakami, came to similar conclusions. While hurricanes are actually expected to occur less frequently across large swaths of the Pacific Ocean, the central Pacific near Hawaii is an exception.

What's happening in this remote corner of the Pacific?

Warming ocean temperatures have a lot to do with it, Murakami noted. Hurricanes form more easily, and stay strong longer, over warmer waters.

"Many climate models consistently project future increase in sea surface temperatures, especially near the Hawaiian region," he said.

Climate change may also cause certain west-flowing wind systems around Hawaii, known as trade winds, to weaken, according to Murakami. These winds can weaken or break up hurricanes as they approach the islands. As they diminish, storms may be able to approach more easily.

While most modeling studies are looking decades into the future, some research suggests that climate change may already be influencing the Hawaiian hurricane season.

One study, published in a special edition of the _Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society_, took a closer look at an unusually active Hawaiian hurricane season in 2014. Three hurricanes veered close to the Hawaiian islands that year.

Using model simulations, the study found that this active season was made substantially more likely by the influence of global warming. An El Niño event occurring that year, which caused Pacific waters to temporarily warm, likely also contributed.

The paper falls into a class of research known as attribution science, studies that investigate the influence climate change has had on an individual event, like a hurricane or a heat wave.

Murakami cautioned that no such study has been conducted for Douglas, and "we cannot say if this Hurricane Douglas is caused by global warming." As history shows, hurricanes do sometimes swing past the Hawaiian islands simply due to the right combination of good conditions at the right time.

The point is that events like Douglas are still rare today — but they may be more common in the future.

An increase in Hawaiian hurricanes is just one of many changes scientists expect for tropical cyclones as the world warms.

Other research, such as a June 2018 study published in _Nature_, suggests that hurricanes may be moving more slowly and dumping more rain as they go. The odds of strong hurricanes, those of a Category 3 or higher, are increasing, according to research published in _Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences_ in June this year. And a May 2014 report in _Nature_ found that cyclones are beginning to move farther away from the tropics and closer to the poles.

Experts have warned that many coastal areas around the world may be at an increased risk of hurricane damage in the future. That includes places where such events were previously rare, like Hawaii.


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## PeteM (Jul 29, 2020)

__





National Hurricane Center






www.nhc.noaa.gov




Tryin to Reason With Hurricane Season.... Sure could use a bloody mary. Looks like Florida is up next.


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## KateL (Jul 29, 2020)

PeteM said:


> __
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Hi Pete, I guess ‘tis the season. Florida does not need another one of those monster storms. I would guess you are pretty safe - hurricane-wise - up in Baltimore. Cheers! Kate


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## KateL (Jul 29, 2020)

Linus_Cello said:


> I thought the following article was interesting in explaining why hurricanes (technically, isn't it cyclones in the Pacific Ocean) generally do not hit Hawaii (apologies in advance to the moderators, article discusses climate change):
> 
> 
> 
> ...


Hi Linus, Interesting, thanks. Pretty sure I’ll be gone by the end of the century. I have lived here since the early 80s and we have a few close calls every year. Price of paradise, but I hope never to see a direct hit to the densely populated parts of this island. Best, Kate


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## Linus_Cello (Jul 29, 2020)

KateL said:


> Hi Linus, Interesting, thanks. Pretty sure I’ll be gone by the end of the century. I have lived here since the early 80s and we have a few close calls every year. Price of paradise, but I hope never to see a direct hit to the densely populated parts of this island. Best, Kate



At least you don’t have to worry about active volcanoes?


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## NYEric (Jul 30, 2020)

Wow! Harsh realm!


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## SuperPaph (Jul 30, 2020)

Now I am very worried, a new event is in the way, and if it affects Cuba, I will have to "evacuate" my Paphs. 
When the 5 category, (Called Ike Hurricane), I was in Gibara, the must affected locality, waiting for making an evaluation of the impact in mollusk populations, and when the phenom was on it height "fire balls" flew in the air. It was horrible with all that monstrous sound....
This picture was taken one day before the pass of Ike Hurricane


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## Guldal (Aug 2, 2020)

Thank you for the interesting article, Linus!



Linus_Cello said:


> (apologies in advance to the moderators, article discussing climate changes)


Oh, boy, I like your sense of humour! 

Allow me to issue a little hurricane warning of my own: hurricanes 'Bertold' and 'Stone' approaching these shores with fulminant force. Pray, they have been severely downgraded before they reach us!


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## DrLeslieEe (Aug 3, 2020)

Glad everyone is safe!!! That storm was close!


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## KateL (Aug 3, 2020)

DrLeslieEe said:


> Glad everyone is safe!!! That storm was close!


Thank you - we are sending our best wishes to all in the path of other storms.


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## PeteM (Aug 4, 2020)

KateL said:


> Hi Pete, I guess ‘tis the season. Florida does not need another one of those monster storms. I would guess you are pretty safe - hurricane-wise - up in Baltimore. Cheers! Kate


Almost through our first 'Tropical storm' here in MD. Lots of rain in Baltimore, thankful the wind has been mild so far.


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## KateL (Aug 5, 2020)

PeteM said:


> Almost through our first 'Tropical storm' here in MD. Lots of rain in Baltimore, thankful the wind has been mild so far.


Hope you’re through the wind and rain, Pete. Sending good thoughts your way. Kate


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## PeteM (Aug 5, 2020)

KateL said:


> Hope you’re through the wind and rain, Pete. Sending good thoughts your way. Kate


Thanks. All good here, it was quick. Luckily, my neighborhood was not greatly impacted, we must have dodged the heavier bands of wind and rain. I know other parts of Maryland and Virginia were hit harder. And states further South and North along the east coast. I do hope others faired well, collections and all.


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