# My two cents worth



## ehanes7612 (Nov 5, 2011)

charging over 40 dollars for a one growth sanderianum hybrid (unless its a division of an excellent clone) is unacceptable to me...i just dont see the justification in that type of pricing (and if your business depends on it , your probably in the wrong business anyway )...just my two cents worth


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## emydura (Nov 5, 2011)

In Australia, you may be lucky to get a seedling not long out of a flask for $40.

I have always been astounded how cheap multi-florals are in the US. I remember seeing multi-growth PEOY's in bud for $39. Given how slow these things grow, I can't see how nurseries make any money selling that cheap. They would have to be selling at a loss.

David


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## gonewild (Nov 5, 2011)

So how much should it cost?


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## valenzino (Nov 5, 2011)

Who talks about prices,first must calculate how much cost to a small nursery produce such a plant.Someone can do low price,but buying today from taiwan and resell tomorrow without growing the plant...this mean...no way to produce Paphs in my coutry(only way is to have a very big nursery selling mostly other things...and make a liveing on those).


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 5, 2011)

emydura said:


> In Australia, you may be lucky to get a seedling not long out of a flask for $40.
> 
> I have always been astounded how cheap multi-florals are in the US. I remember seeing multi-growth PEOY's in bud for $39. Given how slow these things grow, I can't see how nurseries make any money selling that cheap. They would have to be selling at a loss.
> 
> David



from what i understand, places that sell them that cheap are either hobbyists or have other substantial income (phals) and even places that sell them at high prices arent sustaining their business (there was some article on the state of nurseries recently)..and yeah , im only talking about the US...sanderianum hybrids are not a money maker at any price.. so , its my opinion that pricing is based more on emotional attachment rather than supply and demand...but although demand isnt that great (compared to phals and even..say.. brachy's)...pricing them more reasonably moves them, so the often said argument that they take up a lot of shelf space (time wise) doesnt hold water for me


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 5, 2011)

valenzino said:


> Who talks about prices,first must calculate how much cost to a small nursery produce such a plant.Someone can do low price,but buying today from taiwan and resell tomorrow without growing the plant...this mean...no way to produce Paphs in my coutry(only way is to have a very big nursery selling mostly other things...and make a liveing on those).



let me repeat myself more eloquently if you are pricing based on cost to raise them and you cant sell them until you bring them down at a price that is nonsustainable..get out of the business


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 5, 2011)

gonewild said:


> So how much should it cost?



39, of course
but i think that most commercial growers realize they cant compete with hobbyists selling to each other (sandy hybrids) ...most of my gripe goes to what i see on ebay


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 5, 2011)

emydura said:


> In Australia, you may be lucky to get a seedling not long out of a flask for $40.
> 
> I have always been astounded how cheap multi-florals are in the US. I remember seeing multi-growth PEOY's in bud for $39. Given how slow these things grow, I can't see how nurseries make any money selling that cheap. They would have to be selling at a loss.
> 
> David



Frank Booth is to blame :clap:


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## valenzino (Nov 5, 2011)

ehanes7612 said:


> let me repeat myself more eloquently if you are pricing based on cost to raise them and you cant sell them until you bring them down at a price that is nonsustainable..get out of the business



...exactely,is this the reason why many nurseries are going out of buissness and many opportunities to have some fantastic breedings are lost forever...

...is like buying a Phalaenopsis in a megamall and pay it 5€,(the megamall is selling underprice,cause they selling other products at the side) and then go to a normal retailer and say him is a thief because is selling it at 20€...

But wich is the right price?..is simply the cost of production of the plant x 2 more or less...produced in your country(buissness is a thing,buy and sell...produce is another)
If you pay less you had a good deal 
...and not opposite...that if you pay the right production price you have been cheated!
Love for orchids is also know that money you spend are improving your local production and quality,and not the mass market...ending nearly always,particularly in Paphs(no mericloning possible) in low quality.


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## gonewild (Nov 5, 2011)

ehanes7612 said:


> let me repeat myself more eloquently if you are pricing based on cost to raise them and you cant sell them until you bring them down at a price that is nonsustainable..get out of the business



Most good breeders are already out of the business. If you want plants that are new and current better buy them now at whatever price you can find them. Don't rely on imported "new" hybrids. In the near future the imports will be stopped for any number of reasons.

$40 is a bargain for a plant that is probably 3 year old or more. Even gripes about the costs from ebay sellers should be directed at ebay's new improved higher fees and not the sellers. When you buy a $40 plant on ebay, ebay make more profit than the seller.


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 5, 2011)

valenzino said:


> ...exactely,is this the reason why many nurseries are going out of buissness and many opportunities to have some fantastic breedings are lost forever...
> 
> ...is like buying a Phalaenopsis in a megamall and pay it 5€,(the megamall is selling underprice,cause they selling other products at the side) and then go to a normal retailer and say him is a thief because is selling it at 20€...
> 
> ...



well, my focus is sanderianum hybrid breeding (focused hobbyist)...and ive talked to a few people who like to study trends..its just anecdotal but i am not so sure that nurseries (either by loss of business or by changing focus) is a detriment to great breeding with sanderianum hybrids.....its a mater of encouraging hobbyists to breed and share pollen ...i feel bad for nurseries who put all or much of their cookies in the last 20 years thinking this breeding would sustain them...but its the nature of the business, and ever changing. 
I suspect that its the Taiwanese who have brought much of the great breeding to the world..especially in the US...maybe that will continue...(i hope)...i plan on focusing a great deal of attention on it myself (but i dont want to rely on it as income)...and some vendors may see me (and others like me) as the problem..but when i first got into multiflorals it was the dedicated hobbyists promoting this breeding, not the nurseries...so am i sympathetic ..to some degree...but it has its limits


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 5, 2011)

gonewild said:


> Most good breeders are already out of the business. If you want plants that are new and current better buy them now at whatever price you can find them. Don't rely on imported "new" hybrids. In the near future the imports will be stopped for any number of reasons.
> 
> $40 is a bargain for a plant that is probably 3 year old or more. Even gripes about the costs from ebay sellers should be directed at ebay's new improved higher fees and not the sellers. When you buy a $40 plant on ebay, ebay make more profit than the seller.



sorry ..i dont buy this reasoning..simply because im not seeing new trends in breeding on ebay...their was chia hua dancer..but the market was saturated with them and i saw the prices drop on them rapidly (to sell them)

and Parkside seems to be the only vendor selling state of the art breeding, at least they are the only ones with a large selection, which is great but they are too expensive..and i recently read that they are converting much of their space to selling phals..and arent they trying to sell the business?

true it looks dismal for sanderianum breeding if you look at the demise of the nurseries..but if these plants are truely in demand ...then hobbyists will take up the slack (as it used to be)


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## gonewild (Nov 5, 2011)

ehanes7612 said:


> sorry ..i dont buy this reasoning..simply because im not seeing new trends in breeding on ebay...their was chia hua dancer..but the market was saturated with them and i saw the prices drop on them rapidly




I'm not sure what you don't buy about this reasoning? Maybe I'm not clear about your point?

You don't see new trends on ebay for two reasons...
1. There is no profit to be made selling plants on ebay, only losses.
2. There are not many commercial domestic breeders making new hybrids now and the imported plants are too expensive to resell on ebay.


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## gonewild (Nov 5, 2011)

ehanes7612 said:


> true it looks dismal for sanderianum breeding if you look at the demise of the nurseries..but if these plants are truely in demand ...then hobbyists will take up the slack (as it used to be)



Used to be backyard growers could afford to maintain a greenhouse to produce a few plants to sell. At $40 for a sanderanium hybrid you can't pay the heating bill by selling a few plants.


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## rob (Nov 5, 2011)

In my experience there is now very little room to make money selling paphs, especially if you are breeding them. 7 years ago I started to buy in Tawain breed plants via Hawaii and now I see the same plants for sale, some in bud, on Ebay for less than I paid for them as seedlings or nbs. The paph business is going ther way of Phals without the advantage of Tissue Culture!


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 5, 2011)

sorry, should be more clear .was focusing on your statement "If you want plants that are new and current better buy them now at whatever price you can find them" and its true that ebay is difficult for making profits that need to sustain a business (if you rely on markups of 3x )..i agree with you on that point...but if you just want to make a little money or even break even (hobbyist) then its a good place to sell...which i think (hoping) once the shock of how disapointing the sales of sandy hybrids have been , hobbyists will pick up the slack...i think we are both in agreement about most of the problem


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 5, 2011)

rob said:


> In my experience there is now very little room to make money selling paphs, especially if you are breeding them. 7 years ago I started to buy in Tawain breed plants via Hawaii and now I see the same plants for sale, some in bud, on Ebay for less than I paid for them as seedlings or nbs. The paph business is going ther way of Phals without the advantage of Tissue Culture!



true....still better than working for someone else, i guess

it will rest on the hobbyists to keep the paph trend going...i know quite a few people who will be releasing some amazing stuff in the next couple of years..honestly, i am more excited about the future of paphs than i have ever been...but i am biased


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## gonewild (Nov 5, 2011)

ehanes7612 said:


> sorry, should be more clear .was focusing on your statement "If you want plants that are new and current better buy them now at whatever price you can find them" and its true that ebay is difficult for making profits that need to sustain a business (if you rely on markups of 3x )..i agree with you on that point...but if you just want to make a little money or even break even (hobbyist) then its a good place to sell...which i think (hoping) once the shock of how disapointing the sales of sandy hybrids have been , hobbyists will pick up the slack...i think we are both in agreement about most of the problem



Yeah I think we agree. The issue with developing improved hybrids is production quantity. The reason we are having so many great hybrids now is because over the last 20 years commercial growers grew out thousands of plants to select the best breeders. They used these selected plants to make new improvements in the hybrids. Small hobby growers will only be able to grow out a few plants to select from. So eventually over a few generations we won't see the same level of hybrid advancements.

But don't get me wrong I think it is great that the orchid hobby is heading back to "hobby". Big commercial growers have in a way taken the romance out of orchid collecting. It's better when a nice plant will cost $500!


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## tim (Nov 5, 2011)

always a good question to think of is how many people in the US want a sanderianum (or multi hybrid) or a hangianum or a gigantifolium or a kovachii of whatever. Probably tops out at a couple hundred, maybe a thousand tops. Probably most of those people at this point have one or several sanderianums and are now not interested in buying more of them. The market, and particularly the hobbyist market, is relatively saturated with these plants. A good demonstration of this is that you can own an awarded sandy - recently awarded sandy - for $400 (on Zephyrus Orchids' site, from their beautiful AQ), which is a tiny sum considering the original price of sanderianums 8-10 years ago.

I think that in paphs, if you're going to be selling commercially, you have to grow things up to flower as quickly as possible, and you have to find a market for unloading the junk you bloom out. There is always a market for good stuff, but unloading the junk is the challenge. In the US only in hawaii and in florida is the production cost of seedlings low enough to sell for less than your $40.


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 5, 2011)

tim said:


> always a good question to think of is how many people in the US want a sanderianum (or multi hybrid) or a hangianum or a gigantifolium or a kovachii of whatever. Probably tops out at a couple hundred, maybe a thousand tops. Probably most of those people at this point have one or several sanderianums and are now not interested in buying more of them. The market, and particularly the hobbyist market, is relatively saturated with these plants. A good demonstration of this is that you can own an awarded sandy - recently awarded sandy - for $400 (on Zephyrus Orchids' site, from their beautiful AQ), which is a tiny sum considering the original price of sanderianums 8-10 years ago.
> 
> I think that in paphs, if you're going to be selling commercially, you have to grow things up to flower as quickly as possible, and you have to find a market for unloading the junk you bloom out. There is always a market for good stuff, but unloading the junk is the challenge. In the US only in hawaii and in florida is the production cost of seedlings low enough to sell for less than your $40.



true...and heating costs are expensive...testing ways to keep it down myself...but i beleive i can get the cost down to 5 dollars a plant ...but i live in seattle


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## gonewild (Nov 5, 2011)

ehanes7612 said:


> true...and heating costs are expensive...testing ways to keep it down myself...but i beleive i can get the cost down to 5 dollars a plant ...but i live in seattle



$5 a plant for what? 
just heat? 
per year?


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 5, 2011)

gonewild said:


> $5 a plant for what?
> just heat?
> per year?



total cost for heat.. five years


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## tim (Nov 5, 2011)

i would like to see one of our commercial members tell us the cost to produce a plant from flask to flower given a conservative flowering time of 5 years for a multi or complex in a 4" pot. i'm sure they have it down to a science and can tell you exactly what the cost per year breakdown is in terms of heat, electric, media, pots, water, fertilizer and initial costs from flask. I'd be very interested in those numbers but I bet no one will share...


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## gonewild (Nov 5, 2011)

ehanes7612 said:


> total cost for heat.. five years



How much will all the other costs add up to per plant for 5 years?


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## gonewild (Nov 5, 2011)

tim said:


> i would like to see one of our commercial members tell us the cost to produce a plant from flask to flower given a conservative flowering time of 5 years for a multi or complex in a 4" pot. i'm sure they have it down to a science and can tell you exactly what the cost per year breakdown is in terms of heat, electric, media, pots, water, fertilizer and initial costs from flask. I'd be very interested in those numbers but I bet no one will share...




I have no current cost for commercial growing but I'll take a guess at $0.50 per plant per month.


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 5, 2011)

tim said:


> i would like to see one of our commercial members tell us the cost to produce a plant from flask to flower given a conservative flowering time of 5 years for a multi or complex in a 4" pot. i'm sure they have it down to a science and can tell you exactly what the cost per year breakdown is in terms of heat, electric, media, pots, water, fertilizer and initial costs from flask. I'd be very interested in those numbers but I bet no one will share...


 well, i said heat only..i figure seven for five years( ive done the calculations myself..will get that to you).total..and ive seen several greenhouse nurseries..many greenhouses are innefficient


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## valenzino (Nov 5, 2011)

$1 x year...wow...dont make read this Thread to chinese and Taiwanese....or they will alll come to seattle to produce Paphs!!! oke:


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## valenzino (Nov 5, 2011)

gonewild said:


> I have no current cost for commercial growing but I'll take a guess at $0.50 per plant per month.



agree(depending on area,favourable seasons and labour cost).


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 5, 2011)

heating costs for my 12 x 15 GH is 600 a year...plus 300 a year for materials (pots and media)and water/sewage...thats 4500 in five years..i have 1000 compotted seedlings...300 medium sized and 200 nbs to bs plants..with this ratio ..it costs 3.5 dollars per plant per five years...i will probably increase ratio of BS to twice as much...so figure twice as much costs.. seven per plant.of course i dont have any other significant overhead costs like labor and marketing etc..but i wont be doing this for income


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## jtrmd (Nov 5, 2011)

ehanes7612 said:


> heating costs for my 12 x 15 GH is 600 a year..



I need to move to your area,because on a nasty winter here it probably costs that for just Dec. & Jan.


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## tim (Nov 5, 2011)

ya but you can't get them all to blooming size in that size gh, so another major capital investment there, plus increases in heat and so forth with larger size gh. plus you're not counting your own labor. if you work for free i bet there's alot of members here who would need repotting done as well. lol...


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 6, 2011)

jtrmd said:


> I need to move to your area,because on a nasty winter here it probably costs that for just Dec. & Jan.



seattle average temps in winter high 30's..yeah


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 6, 2011)

tim said:


> ya but you can't get them all to blooming size in that size gh, so another major capital investment there, plus increases in heat and so forth with larger size gh. plus you're not counting your own labor. if you work for free i bet there's alot of members here who would need repotting done as well. lol...



this is why i presented a calculation based on proportions, the cost per plant would be the same no matter how big the GH (actually, heating would be less per cubic foot for larger GH's because of lower Surface area to volume ratios)..and simply because what grower brings all their plants to BS (some get sold, some die off )...and im not counting other overhead costs, just those that are 'required' for maintenance...all those other costs (labor , marketing, wholesale purchase) are less important to hobbyists. (i am not trying to make the point that commercial gh's can lower their costs, i am sure most of them do the best they can)


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 6, 2011)

gonewild said:


> Yeah I think we agree. The issue with developing improved hybrids is production quantity. The reason we are having so many great hybrids now is because over the last 20 years commercial growers grew out thousands of plants to select the best breeders. They used these selected plants to make new improvements in the hybrids. Small hobby growers will only be able to grow out a few plants to select from. So eventually over a few generations we won't see the same level of hybrid advancements.
> 
> But don't get me wrong I think it is great that the orchid hobby is heading back to "hobby". Big commercial growers have in a way taken the romance out of orchid collecting. It's better when a nice plant will cost $500!



that is why slippertalk.com exists ..to bring together people who have exceptional plants and to breed from them...i am not planning on keeping all my plants from my own breeding (well, their are certain crosses i want to be stingy about to see bloom in vast numbers, but these are only a couple), it will just have to be a cooperative growing effort to advance the hybrids


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## valenzino (Nov 6, 2011)

If someone want to do serious breeding must flower hundreads of plants of the same cross and have them in his place to be shure to have fresh flowers and pollen to go on and dont loose the opportunities...flower 10 or 20 plants each is not breeding...so its better to go buy flowered plnts and cross them just for fun and produce some more seedlings to save on future purchases and have the pleasure to see flwering a cross done by yourself...fun...nice...passionate....but not real breeding.


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## emydura (Nov 6, 2011)

gonewild said:


> I'm not sure what you don't buy about this reasoning? Maybe I'm not clear about your point?
> 
> You don't see new trends on ebay for two reasons...
> 1. There is no profit to be made selling plants on ebay, only losses.
> 2. There are not many commercial domestic breeders making new hybrids now and the imported plants are too expensive to resell on ebay.



It is funny as orchid nurseries in Australia are now moving to eBay to sell there plants as they realise they can make much more money selling them this way. I guess they have a bigger market on eBay. I'm astonished at what plants sell for on eBay. Certainly way more than what I use to pay direct from a nursery. Today a small Gloria Naugle seedling sold for over $100. 

David


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## Ozpaph (Nov 6, 2011)

emydura said:


> It is funny as orchid nurseries in Australia are now moving to eBay to sell there plants as they realise they can make much more money selling them this way. I guess they have a bigger market on eBay. I'm astonished at what plants sell for on eBay. Certainly way more than what I use to pay direct from a nursery. Today a small Gloria Naugle seedling sold for over $100.
> 
> David



Crazy prices, but the general lack of supply is the problem here, I think. Its especially a problem for larger plants. Many have probably tried flasks to find that the years of waiting and loss of seedlings over time makes buying a few flowering size plants worth the extra cost.
I certainly wish I could buy NFS multiflorals for $40!
The other advantage of eBay is that its immediate and up to date. WYSIWYGet is a powerful marketing tool. If nursery's (in Oz) had up to date lists on-line things might be different, especially if the niche plants like paphs were included.


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## paphioboy (Nov 6, 2011)

> Today a small Gloria Naugle seedling sold for over $100.



I noticed  Not just paphs, a plant of sophronitis coccinea (not awarded) sold for $200 once..


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 6, 2011)

there was a time when i would buy a sandy hybrid for hundreds of dollars too...but given the market here..i wont do that anymore...i wont pay more than forty a growth,,,unless its a known flower ( awarded, etc)...obviously the markets are different in other countries


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## gonewild (Nov 6, 2011)

emydura said:


> It is funny as orchid nurseries in Australia are now moving to eBay to sell there plants as they realise they can make much more money selling them this way. I guess they have a bigger market on eBay. I'm astonished at what plants sell for on eBay. Certainly way more than what I use to pay direct from a nursery. Today a small Gloria Naugle seedling sold for over $100.
> 
> David



It was that way here as well 2 or 3 years ago. But not now. Before when almost every plant would sell for at least a minimum bid amount the averages for the seller worked in their favor. But now the majority of plants pass through unsold most times of the yeaar. Now Ebay collects fees for these unsold listings. Now ebay charges the seller the sales commission on shipping costs as well and shipping costs are very high now. 

For hobbyists ebay is a good way to sell plants but if you are trying to be a quality small nursery and abide by all the laws and rules and do what it takes to keep customers satisfied and provide quality plants you can't afford to sell on ebay. If you do efficient cost accounting and track and include all of the actual expenses at the end of the year you will see that you loose money selling on ebay in the USA.


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 6, 2011)

gonewild said:


> It was that way here as well 2 or 3 years ago. But not now. Before when almost every plant would sell for at least a minimum bid amount the averages for the seller worked in their favor. But now the majority of plants pass through unsold most times of the yeaar. Now Ebay collects fees for these unsold listings. Now ebay charges the seller the sales commission on shipping costs as well and shipping costs are very high now.
> 
> For hobbyists ebay is a good way to sell plants but if you are trying to be a quality small nursery and abide by all the laws and rules and do what it takes to keep customers satisfied and provide quality plants you can't afford to sell on ebay. If you do efficient cost accounting and track and include all of the actual expenses at the end of the year you will see that you loose money selling on ebay in the USA.



i think any business needs to exploit all avenues of selling venues...ebay, shows, orchid forums, website, etc.....i would say that ebay is in the middle as far as costs...shows are very expensive for vendors and retail outlets are costly too..so i still feel ebay is one of the best options for sellers


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## gonewild (Nov 6, 2011)

ehanes7612 said:


> this is why i presented a calculation based on proportions, the cost per plant would be the same no matter how big the GH (actually, heating would be less per cubic foot for larger GH's because of lower Surface area to volume ratios)..and simply because what grower brings all their plants to BS (some get sold, some die off )...and im not counting other overhead costs, just those that are 'required' for maintenance...all those other costs (labor , marketing, wholesale purchase) are less important to hobbyists. (i am not trying to make the point that commercial gh's can lower their costs, i am sure most of them do the best they can)



I get what your saying about producing hobby grown plants and am not trying to discourage you but you started by implying that $40 was too high a price for a BS hybrid so let's consider some things.

Instead of presenting a calculation based on proportions using the total number of plants you should consider calculating the cost per plant based on how many finished plants are produced to a certain size in a given period of time.

In other words determine how many BS plants will be created in 5 years and divide that number into your $4500 cost.

How many BS plants will your 12'x15' produce per year?
How much space is reserved for breeding stock? 
How much space is used for compots or 2" pots?
How much space is available for growing finished plants that would be sold or traded?

What happens if no one else thinks your hybrid is worth buying or trading? Where will you put the plants that don't leave your collection?
What about when a storm knocks out power and plants are damaged or die? These are just some things that you need to consider into your calculations if you want to compare your costs to costs of commercial growers. Heating is only a small part of the cost of growing although it may be the difference between profit and loss.


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## gonewild (Nov 6, 2011)

ehanes7612 said:


> ..so i still feel ebay is one of the best options for sellers



Yes ebay is one of the best options...........and that is the big problem for commercial orchid growers. When one of the best options is not profitable?


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 6, 2011)

gonewild said:


> I get what your saying about producing hobby grown plants and am not trying to discourage you but you started by implying that $40 was too high a price for a BS hybrid so let's consider some things.
> 
> Instead of presenting a calculation based on proportions using the total number of plants you should consider calculating the cost per plant based on how many finished plants are produced to a certain size in a given period of time.
> 
> ...



and i will restate differently...i am not the one comparing costs(everyone else is)...i only provided my costs as a hobbyists to maintain my plants...i understand all the scenarios to growing commercially...my mentor was janice hanson of white river orchids (and i talk to other vendors too, i have done my research)..i know all too well what she went through, i visited her many times to talk shop..why i wont be a commercial vendor and why i am driving home the point home that multifloral plants arent commercially viable (she actually predicted that multiflorals and sandy hybrids would have a short lifespan for vendors)
vendors can price their plants whatever they want..but from what i am seeing they are too high in the US....and they arent selling (viably) at prices over 40 dollars a growth.....so do all the calculations you want, in the end its what the customer wants that is the real determination of price

also, in my calculations (albeit somewhat generalized) i took into consideration all the stages of the plant


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 6, 2011)

you know, nothing i am saying is new...there was a very good article on the state of commercial vendors and the trends they face posted not too long ago...i am just applying it to a select group of hybrids...if a seller wants to sell a hybrid in terms of what they think the plant is worth, all the more power to them...perhaps they will eventually get a buyer but the longer it sits, its commercial value drops and is mostly indicative of the commercial viability of the cross...there is probably some logarithmic equation that best describes this..i closely watch the ability to sell these types on ebay (its a great tool for this)...and i see the problem with this pricing that hurt the trade overall..it squeezes out novice growers who are seeing the purchase more as a risk assessment ...of course, multiflorals have no chance of reaching the stature of phals or integenerics but i cant help but feel that the pricing creates a doomsday scenario for multiflorals ...so either we lose out on these or encourage a different paradigm


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 6, 2011)

valenzino said:


> If someone want to do serious breeding must flower hundreads of plants of the same cross and have them in his place to be shure to have fresh flowers and pollen to go on and dont loose the opportunities...flower 10 or 20 plants each is not breeding...so its better to go buy flowered plnts and cross them just for fun and produce some more seedlings to save on future purchases and have the pleasure to see flwering a cross done by yourself...fun...nice...passionate....but not real breeding.



and this is a good point (and the similar point made by gonewild)...but as hybrids become more complex (multiflorals, sandys, brachys, etc and what i am more concerned with) the viability of seeds decrease exponentially...soooo, it becomes a game that hobbyists can play as effectively as commercial growers


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## Stone (Nov 6, 2011)

Just how much does an out of flask paph seedling cost in Nth. america?
Here they're between $15 - $30. micranthum eburneum was $60 ( 1'' across )
And someone payed $96 for a venustum alba on ebay


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 6, 2011)

Stone said:


> Just how much does an out of flask paph seedling cost in Nth. america?
> Here they're between $15 - $30. micranthum eburneum was $60 ( 1'' across )
> And someone payed $96 for a venustum alba on ebay



depends greatly on the cross...but i dont know anyone willing to buy out of flask individual seedlings in the US (compots are good) ...personally, i think its foolhardy to buy them and irresponsible to sell them

but we have it pretty special here ( thanks to a long list of dedicated hobbyists over the past few decades)...many opportunities to buy older seedlings of good crosses

when i started growing paphs in the nineties ...there were some really good growers who did their own hybridizing..and would sell flasks for cheap ( i bought sandy hybrid flasks 60 apiece from these growers in northern CA)...there was Bill Leonard in oregon, who would sell things he grew from seed at reasonable prices and only when they were ready to sell (and probably the best grower ever)... but like most good things...people saw opportunities to make profits and start gouging...great hybridizing is one thing but if you are squeezed out of the market by the pricing structure.....it only ends up hurting the trade (in my opinion)


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## Stone (Nov 6, 2011)

When I say out of flask, I mean just established maybe 6 months.
It's really disapointing having to rely on a small handful of vendors and 
receiving tiny delicate seedlings in your order planted in sub-standard mix
and having to baby them along fpr months! I dont grow hybrids but for species this is usually the reality.
Flasks are a much better option --when available-- and importing is out
of the question because they are gassed to death on arrival. Smuggle?:


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 6, 2011)

Stone said:


> When I say out of flask, I mean just established maybe 6 months.
> It's really disapointing having to rely on a small handful of vendors and
> receiving tiny delicate seedlings in your order planted in sub-standard mix
> and having to baby them along fpr months! I dont grow hybrids but for species this is usually the reality.
> ...



I have heard australia is tough on flasks
but you bring up another good point with people who sell, i stopped buying large plants from commercial nurseries, because the quality of plants was terrible (mushy roots, dessicated plants )....the price didnt justify the neglect of the plant...so this hurts the trade even more...
in places like australia where its difficult to find plants i can see the pricing based more on supply and demand...essentially you guys are just starting out. and from arguments i hear from other growers , the ability to change the bureaucratic rules is more effective once the establishment of a viable commodity exists...fortunately for the US, we were able to establish a good amount of pah multiflorals before the onset of CITES (or so i hear)

and smuggle? given the nature of people..i am sure its happening


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 7, 2011)

just so i am clear...i did say 40 for a single growth plant..obviously multigrowth plants are preferred and higher in value (and easier to sell)


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## Leo Schordje (Nov 12, 2011)

I finally read this thread, and you guys are doing a lot of typing and not remembering the basics. If your think $40 is too much for a sanderianum hybrid, DON'T BUY IT. But it is the seller's right to set their own price, and for the vast majority of us, the price we set is based on what we need, our costs plus our need to have something left beyond paying the gas bill. Most of us are just trying to get by, not make a killing. As a hobby seller I resent the implication that there is something wrong with us if we feel that a plant is worth more than what you deem it to be worth. ( though I do know you don't mean this specifically at me, or anything directly personal about it, you have been a good customer of mine, and I too have bought some of your plants) 

About production costs, think about it, you are in Seattle, your climate is mild, you don't have to put out much for heat, and just as important, most years you don't have to spend much on cooling, especially if you are near the coast. Here in Chicago area 4 to 5 months a year we are heating, and 3 or 4 months we are laying out a lot of $$ on cooling. When we are hot, we are also humid, evaporative cooling is not very efficient here, so extra capacity or alternate methods need to be used. Cost is very subject to local conditions. 

Another separate note, if you base your business model relies on blooming the majority of seedlings of a multifloral hybrid from flask in 5 years or less, you are definitely going to loose money. In my experience, a small percentage of the seedlings will bloom quickly, maybe a couple, seldom more than a half dozen. The vast majority will bloom one or two years following the first, then finally the last 25% will straggle in, sometimes many years later, before they bloom. As a salesman, because the first might have bloomed only 3 or 5 years from flasks, we'll tell the customers "Oh yeah, it will take the about 5 years to bloom" or what ever number adjusting for the age of the seedling you are trying to sell. Reality is another matter. The only people who will say I am wrong on this are ones who have not actually raised a block of 100 or so plants from a single cross. One's and two's of a cross are not a good survey. 

Right now I am sitting on about 150 Paph sanderianums from 5 different seed pods. The first couple of these bloomed only 6 years from flask, those were either sold at a fair price or set aside for future breeding. Not bad for a species. The plants I am trying to sell now are all near blooming size, 16 inch to 30 inch leaf spans, all single growths and all are between 7 and 9 years from flask. In my mind, a fair price for these plants would be in the $150 to $200 range, because of their age and size as all are in 4 x 4 x 5 inch pots which is 4 pots per square foot of shelf space. At $150 the 7 year old plants would be returning $21.43 per year and the 9 year old plants would be yeilding $ $16.67 per year. I don't think this is unreasonable or unfair given my costs. In reality I am experiencing resistance at $175 for "in bud" plants and resistance to $125 for blooming size seedlings. I am also sitting on a half dozen previously bloomed plants that I don't need for my purposes. I have been tossing more of the less than perfect of them, and the less than 'great' of the previously bloomed plants on the compost heap, rather than continue to give up bench space for them. So we have a situation where I need to get what I am asking, and the customers are not buying at the rate I had hoped for when I decided to bring a block of seedlings to bloom, rather than sell them off at the 6 inch leaf span size. It is not surprising so many orchid companies have gone under, and there will be more failures in the next couple years. Fortunately I don't have to rely on orchids to pay the mortgage, but if I did, I would have gone under in 2008. Depending on how pressed for space I get, I might have to have a 'fire sale' and dump some portion of them at a loss, or I will just resign myself to selling half a dozen a year for the next 20 years.


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## paphioboy (Nov 12, 2011)

> I have been tossing more of the less than perfect of them, and the less than 'great' of the previously bloomed plants on the compost heap



 Sandies on the compost heap? I hope not...(!!)


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 12, 2011)

Leo Schordje said:


> I finally read this thread, and you guys are doing a lot of typing and not remembering the basics. If your think $40 is too much for a sanderianum hybrid, DON'T BUY IT. But it is the seller's right to set their own price, and for the vast majority of us, the price we set is based on what we need, our costs plus our need to have something left beyond paying the gas bill. Most of us are just trying to get by, not make a killing. As a hobby seller I resent the implication that there is something wrong with us if we feel that a plant is worth more than what you deem it to be worth. ( though I do know you don't mean this specifically at me, or anything directly personal about it, you have been a good customer of mine, and I too have bought some of your plants)
> 
> About production costs, think about it, you are in Seattle, your climate is mild, you don't have to put out much for heat, and just as important, most years you don't have to spend much on cooling, especially if you are near the coast. Here in Chicago area 4 to 5 months a year we are heating, and 3 or 4 months we are laying out a lot of $$ on cooling. When we are hot, we are also humid, evaporative cooling is not very efficient here, so extra capacity or alternate methods need to be used. Cost is very subject to local conditions.
> 
> ...



i grew up in chicago and virginia, know the weather quite well...
the topic was about sanderianum hybrids...not sanderianum species...and while the implication of the economic viability of hybrids is heavily weighed on the costs of growing for the grower its not what drives the decision to buy...with all the considerations that goes through a customer's mind....people dont buy based on how much effort you put into growing...they buy based on their own desires and the potential of a specific bloom...if the seller is unwilling to consider the driving force behind sales (supply and demand , not grower struggles) then lessons are learned the hard way...in other words ...a customer's sympathies to a vendor only go so far


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 12, 2011)

paphioboy said:


> Sandies on the compost heap? I hope not...(!!)



well, that's one way to control supply


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## Leo Schordje (Nov 16, 2011)

ehanes7612 said:


> i grew up in chicago and virginia, know the weather quite well...
> the topic was about sanderianum hybrids...not sanderianum species...and while the implication of the economic viability of hybrids is heavily weighed on the costs of growing for the grower its not what drives the decision to buy...with all the considerations that goes through a customer's mind....people dont buy based on how much effort you put into growing...they buy based on their own desires and the potential of a specific bloom...if the seller is unwilling to consider the driving force behind sales (supply and demand , not grower struggles) then lessons are learned the hard way...in other words ...a customer's sympathies to a vendor only go so far



Yes, we are in agreement. I am not asking for sympathy. I am lamenting (perhaps a little resentful of) what I consider the 'Wal-Mart' effect that has occured in the perceptions of the orchid buying customer base. Production costs are the major component a business has to use to bench mark the minimum price for goods sold. If the customers perception of what an item should cost does not exceed the production costs, the business model is not viable. My decision to raise a block of seedlings was a bad decision. Fortunately I am not dependant on this for the food on the table, or the mortgage. However, I have had to severely cut back on my Saturday nights out for dinner at a restaurant. :evil:

There is no significant difference between selling the species sanderianum or its hybrids. Both sales efforts target a fairly narrow segments of the orchid buying market. The two segments over-lap, but there are species people who would not buy a hybrid, and there are many who do not see the species as having any value over the hybrid.

This discussion has crystalized my thoughts about what to do with my plants that are not moving. I will not dump them on the market at fire sale prices, that would only perpetuate the perception that all orchids should be less than $20 in bloom. I will keep them, because I like them. I'll refine my selection of breeding stock as they come into bloom, or re-bloom for the second time. I will sell the one's and two's over the coming years to people willing to pay what I consider is a fair price. I think I have to set up another light stand for the basement orchid room. My carpenter hates what the humidity is doing to the wood frame of this house. Oh well. :evil:

This is a good discussion, it is the seller's right to set prices where they feel they need to. It is wrong for a customer to assume that because a price is higher than they want to pay that there is something less than honest about the seller. evil: honesty has nothing to do with price, some is, some ain't) It is the right of the customer to not buy a plant that they feel is over priced. Go to some other vendor if you don't like the prices, but do it politely.  And finally, there is no rule. If a vendor can't sell a plant at the price they want, they don't have to have a fire sale. They can do what they will with the plants.


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 16, 2011)

Leo Schordje said:


> Yes, we are in agreement. I am not asking for sympathy. I am lamenting (perhaps a little resentful of) what I consider the 'Wal-Mart' effect that has occured in the perceptions of the orchid buying customer base. Production costs are the major component a business has to use to bench mark the minimum price for goods sold. If the customers perception of what an item should cost does not exceed the production costs, the business model is not viable. My decision to raise a block of seedlings was a bad decision. Fortunately I am not dependant on this for the food on the table, or the mortgage. However, I have had to severely cut back on my Saturday nights out for dinner at a restaurant. :evil:
> 
> There is no significant difference between selling the species sanderianum or its hybrids. Both sales efforts target a fairly narrow segments of the orchid buying market. The two segments over-lap, but there are species people who would not buy a hybrid, and there are many who do not see the species as having any value over the hybrid.
> 
> ...




fair enough


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## tocarmar (Nov 16, 2011)

I for one have to be very careful how much I spend on plants, ect. I am always looking for the cheaper plant, but that does not mean it is the better plant to buy!!


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## nikv (Nov 16, 2011)

I think of orchid prices much the same way that I view the salaries of movie stars and star athletes. If someone is willing to pay it, then that is what they're worth. But for me, I imposed a budget rule eons ago. It used to be that I wouldn't go over $40 USD for an orchid. I have since raised that to $60. But I reserve the right to exceed that price on very rare occasions. The most I've ever paid was $100 USD for a Laelia anceps var. vietchiana from SBOS. Trust me, this one was worth it! I think an orchid hobbyist needs to learn to appreciate the beautiful flowers posted by others or enjoy the beautiful orchid in person at the show, just not always feel compelled to buy it. I know this philosophy has saved my wallet on multiple occasions.


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## keithrs (Nov 16, 2011)

This corner of the orchid market is not based of supply and demand, its based off of being specialized items at a specialized grower/nursery grows, they set sales it to make profit not to get everyone that walks through there door to buy one. These are not your standard Phal. or grocery store orchids, They're plants that only reach a select few that want this type of orchid in there collection making them specialized items, there for the market has little to do with pricing. This is why Andy's or any other specialty grower asks a fair price thats set for there plants. On top of that.... your going to pay even more for a genetically proven plant. Would you pay $5,000 for a orchid that has proven record..... Someone will!!!


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## ehanes7612 (Nov 16, 2011)

keithrs said:


> This corner of the orchid market is not based of supply and demand, its based off of being specialized items at a specialized grower/nursery grows, they set sales it to make profit not to get everyone that walks through there door to buy one. These are not your standard Phal. or grocery store orchids, They're plants that only reach a select few that want this type of orchid in there collection making them specialized items, there for the market has little to do with pricing. This is why Andy's or any other specialty grower asks a fair price thats set for there plants. On top of that.... your going to pay even more for a genetically proven plant. Would you pay $5,000 for a orchid that has proven record..... Someone will!!!



there is a distinction between single growth plants that havent bloomed and those that have bloomed with great flowers, the latter capturing what I call 'antique' status, thus becoming one of a kind and only available to those who have greater financial resources. BUT even in the small niche market of sandy multiflorals, the former still adhere to supply and demand, i have seen this play out on ebay, an article by parkside orchids, talking to vendors and slippertalk, and orchid shows...ten years ago the demand for sandy hybrids was so great (because of the novelty interest and there were so few) that people would pay hundreds for anything, i did this myself. Now, with so many hybrids available and much of the novelty worn off (and of course the recession)...the demand for these plants has waned or perhaps, (i concede) stayed the same..but along with supply increasing (the effect of ebay)...the price has come down...once the price goes down, the demand tends to increase again (associated risk/cost ratios go down and people also tend to buy more than one, thus increasing their chance for good blooms (HINT!!!!)..and people sell their plants..of course, as Leo implies...balance is essential for the grower/vendor , so as not to reach the 'wal mart' scenario


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## Leo Schordje (Nov 17, 2011)

Yep, when you have been watering a seedling for 7 or more years, you simply can not afford to sell it for $20. If nobody buys at the price I feel I need, I get to keep the plant. I like sanderianum, keeping it is not all bad.


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## Roth (Nov 17, 2011)

In short, yes one can produce and sell sanderianum hybrids blooming size for a few dollars. Wild collected plants, mass breeding, mass sowing and growing in cheap potting media, very cheap workers that have no medicare, warmer country than the USA or Europe. They can compete with Europe or the USA and crash the market. Now it belongs to everyone to think whether it is fair or not. Here in Vietnam if I want I can make blooming size clumps of Paphiopedilum helenae, excellent roots, excellent leaves, out of wild plants. At 2 USD for a pot full of growths, very well grown, I would still make a huge profit. But they will not be from high quality parents, clearly.

Having a real breeding program with real motherplants, not pieces of junk, is indeed expensive, and there are prices that no one would go below. seedlings of roth from my Mt Millais, I would never sell them blooming size for 20US, even if Taiwan sells generic roths for 10US blooming size at the moment. It depends on the quality, and what people want really. The Orchid Zone has dozen of thousands of plants they sell yearly that are far more expensive than the Taiwanese plants, 10-20-50-100USD for Maudiae types out of their latest breeding, but they still have customers. I think, as a seller, it is important to make high quality, original plants, then there is a market at a fair price. Trying to compete with meganurseries in Mainland China or Taiwan, with prices matching theirs, is stupid and foolish (and at the end, the quality is absolutely not the same).

As for the prices of sanderianum hybrids, it will go up in the coming years again, not as high as before, but it will. Most sanderianum hybrids from Taiwan were made from fresh wild sanderianum, bloomed and pollinated. Granted, some hybrids had great blooms. But now there is a shortage of sanderianum in Taiwan for this kind of breeding, and the collectors want very large orders to deliver a new batch to Taiwan. As a result, they no longer bloom enough sanderianum to make massive batches of hybrids. The same happened with gigantifolium, they made a lot of hybrids, but they had to get in emergency new wild plants this summer, because they did not have enough blooming plants left anymore in Taiwan ( the previous batch died, except some plants). China is entering the competition too, buy batches of wild plants, make heaps of flasks, sell them cheap. But at a point, where the wild cannot supply enough plants, some of those hybrids will become rare, and expensive.


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