# Australia fire emergency



## troy (Jan 2, 2020)

I've been watching on the news, terrible disaster is an understatement!! I hope you guys on here are ok!! U.s. and other nations are sending fire fighters to help, 100s of years old vegetation and animals are a loss, very sad!! How did it start??


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## emydura (Jan 3, 2020)

It is just horrendous. Hundreds of fires right up the east coast of Australia. They have been burning since August and there is no prospect of them going out any time soon. In fact, the worst time for fires in Australia is between January and March. The only thing that will put the fires out is heavy rain and there is no forecast of that until at least February. So they will just keep burning. Tomorrow is expected to be the worst day so far. Temperatures in the mid 40's and strong wings. So expect a lot more houses to get burnt down and potentially more deaths.

How did they start? Well there are hundreds of separate fires and they started in various ways. One of the worst fires was in South Australia which started from a car crash. Lots of houses lost and people killed. Most of the fires however have started from natural lightning strikes which is normal.

The fires have been caused by a combination of events. Australia is currently going through the worst recorded drought in our history (more than 3 years). The temperatures over the last month or so have been insanely hot. Temperature records have been absolutely smashed. This has been combined with cyclonic winds. The forests are tinder dry. Once they catch light there is no stopping them.

We seem to be surrounded by fires here in Canberra although none have reached really close yet (although only a matter of time). However, for the last month or so we have had to put up with thick smoke that has been 23 times the hazardous rating. The air is toxic and it is hard to breathe. At times our air quality has been the worst in the world. Normally ours would be one of the cleanest.

A lot of the areas on the south coast of NSW are some of my favourite holiday locations (Batemans Bay, Bermagui. Mallacoota). It is devastating to see them so badly destroyed.

The area that has been burnt is just astounding (6 million hectares and growing). It has been estimated that 500 million animals have been killed in the fires.

Climate scientists and fire chiefs have warned for years about future catastrophic fires in Australia. Sadly their predictions are now playing out. Welcome to the future.


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## Guldal (Jan 3, 2020)

David, Thank you for the update!

It's ghastly and heart-wrenching to see people strugling for their homes and sometimes even their lives because of the fires!
I've 'liked' your entry, not because I "like" the content/subject matter, but out of relief from hearing that you yourself, all things considered, are relatively well and for the present safe!
Even here, high up on the northern hemisphere, one would have a heart of stone to remain untouched by the fate of so many of your compatriotes!
And even when the fires get under control, people won't probably have seen the final consquences yet - if my memory doesn't elude me, in the wake of the horrible forest fires in Indonesia a couple of years ago, there followed an appaling increase in respiratory diseases even quite far from the actual fires due to the toxicity of the smoke, that you also mention!
It's difficult not to admire the courage and tenacity of your brave firemen, -women and rescueworkers, sometimes working under impossible circumstances. May their audacious endeavour to help and alleviate the consequences of these catastrophic fires bear fruit!

Most kind regards,
Jens


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## Linus_Cello (Jan 3, 2020)

I hope the fires get under control soon and/or the fires come soon (also I hope this thread doesn’t mirror some of the other threads referencing climate change). Quite bold of the PM to vacation in Hawaii for part of this time. 

https://ktla.com/2019/12/22/austral...king-hawaii-vacation-during-deadly-wildfires/


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## ehanes7612 (Jan 3, 2020)

As someone who has experienced the past few summers under a blanket of smoke, I know it's a difficult thing to have to live through, especially if you have breathing issues like asthma. Hopefully some form of relief happens soon


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## tomkalina (Jan 3, 2020)

David,

Sending our prayers that this disaster abates sooner rather than later. Tragic to hear that 500 million animals having already perished, and countless plant species as well I'm sure. Please stay safe....


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## emydura (Jan 3, 2020)

tomkalina said:


> David,
> 
> Sending our prayers that this disaster abates sooner rather than later. Tragic to hear that 500 million animals having already perished, and countless plant species as well I'm sure. Please stay safe....



And sadly many more animals will now die from starvation and predation as they now have nothing to eat or habitat to live in. 



ehanes7612 said:


> As someone who has experienced the past few summers under a blanket of smoke, I know it's a difficult thing to have to live through, especially if you have breathing issues like asthma. Hopefully some form of relief happens soon



I do suffer mild asthma from time to time, although it has been many years since I have had any issues. But last night when a thick blanket of smoke rolled in, I was suddenly gasping for air and needed to use a ventolin spray. So I can only imagine how difficult it must be for people with more serious breathing difficulties.

Here is a story on the current air quality in canberra -

https://www.theguardian.com/austral...s-worst-air-quality-as-city-all-but-shut-down


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## emydura (Jan 3, 2020)

Linus_Cello said:


> I hope the fires get under control soon and/or the fires come soon (also I hope this thread doesn’t mirror some of the other threads referencing climate change). Quite bold of the PM to vacation in Hawaii for part of this time.
> 
> https://ktla.com/2019/12/22/austral...king-hawaii-vacation-during-deadly-wildfires/



Yes, the Prime Ministers reputation has taken a battering over that holiday and I dare say it may never recover. His performance since then has only got worse. His problem is he leads a party with a weak record on climate change and one which contains many skeptics within its ranks who could easily remove him. So he is trying to downplay the significance of the fires so it does not reflect badly on their policies (or lack thereof). He will not admit that these fires are unprecedented so he comes across as lacking empathy and trivializing them. Going on an overseas holiday to Hawaii while the country is on fire only entrenched those views.

He turned up to Cobargo on Thursday where three people had been killed and the main street all but wiped out. The locals gave it to him with some refusing to shake his hand.

https://amp.abc.net.au/article/11838476#aoh=15780784695804&referrer=https://www.google.com&amp_tf=From %1$s


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## emydura (Jan 3, 2020)

Guldal said:


> David, Thank you for the update!
> 
> It's difficult not to admire the courage and tenacity of your brave firemen, -women and rescueworkers, sometimes working under impossible circumstances. May their audacious endeavour to help and alleviate the consequences of these catastrophic fires bear fruit!
> 
> ...



Yes, the firefighters are amazing. Such courage to stand in front of a 50 meter high inferno. Risk their lives and not receive a cent in reward.

I still cannot comprehend that young firefighter who was killed when his 10 tonne firetruck was picked up by a firestorm and dumped on its roof. That is the sort of conditions they are facing.

There is no better example of their bravery than this video -


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## troy (Jan 3, 2020)

There has been quite a few fires on the west coast u.s. firescience officials say the fire will create it's own storms, pulling in moist cool air clashing with hot dry air causing fire cyclones, winds up to and over 150 mph, I pray for you guys!!!


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## Guldal (Jan 3, 2020)

The video, you've uploaded, David, tells more than words can describe: these guys and gals deserve every bit of praise, gratitude and respect, that can be sent their way!

Very much unlike your PM - it's really not difficult to understand the reaction from people in Cobargo. And it's a demeaning and pity sight to see him trying to create photo-opportunities for himself by forcing handshakes on people, who clearly do not wish to shake his hand! It speaks volumes about the guys character and sense of propriety - or apparently complete lack of both!


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## Berthold (Jan 3, 2020)

troy said:


> There has been quite a few fires on the west coast u.s. firescience officials say the fire will create it's own storms, pulling in moist cool air clashing with hot dry air causing fire cyclones, winds up to and over 150 mph, I pray for you guys!!!



Yes, we know that from the fire storms in Hamburg and Dresden.


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## emydura (Jan 3, 2020)

tomkalina said:


> David,
> 
> Sending our prayers that this disaster abates sooner rather than later. Tragic to hear that 500 million animals having already perished, and countless plant species as well I'm sure. Please stay safe....



For wildlife lovers, this article discusses how numerous species are now likely to become extinct from the widespread fires.

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...angered-species-extinction?CMP=share_btn_link


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## Stone (Jan 3, 2020)

emydura said:


> Welcome to the future.



Absolute pseudoscience garbage


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## Stone (Jan 3, 2020)

> ="emydura, post: 678860, member: 8900"]



'Silent death': Australia's bushfires push countless species to extinction''

More garbage. (from the ''guardian'' no less)
I await the claimed ''extinct species due to fire'' count when the dust settles.


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## emydura (Jan 4, 2020)

troy said:


> There has been quite a few fires on the west coast u.s. firescience officials say the fire will create it's own storms, pulling in moist cool air clashing with hot dry air causing fire cyclones, winds up to and over 150 mph, I pray for you guys!!!



We see the California fires every season. They seem to get worse every year. They always look as bad as Australian fires. 

Yes, the fires here are often creating their own weather as well. That is what happened to that firefighter who was killed when a fire tornado developed lifting and flipping his fire truck.


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## emydura (Jan 4, 2020)

Guldal said:


> The video,
> 
> Very much unlike your PM - it's really not difficult to understand the reaction from people in Cobargo. And it's a demeaning and pity sight to see him trying to create photo-opportunities for himself by forcing handshakes on people, who clearly do not wish to shake his hand! It speaks volumes about the guys character and sense of propriety - or apparently complete lack of both!



I couldn't have said it better myself Jens. You are a good judge of character. A lot of Audtralians share your view.


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## emydura (Jan 4, 2020)

It looks like it was another bad day today with many more houses burnt down and two more people killed in Sourh Australia. But the extent of the destruction won't be known until tomorrow when people can get into these fire areas.

It was another insanely hot day today. It reached 44oC in Canberra which is the hottest day ever recorded here. In Penrith (Sydney) it reached 48.9oC which is also the hottest ever day for the Sydney region. Fortunately the weather forecast for the next few days is much cooler so there will be a reprieve from the fire risk for a while.


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## Stone (Jan 4, 2020)

Stone said:


> Absolute pseudoscience garbage



Welcome to the future..












https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-09-22/bushfire-arson-warning-ahead-of-school-holidays/11528192


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## Stone (Jan 4, 2020)

> [Guldal, post: 678854,
> - it's really not difficult to understand the reaction from people in Cobargo.



No it's not. They are toothless, bong-smoking, ill-educated, ferals most probably non-working most of their lives and would probably hate ''conservative'' government as a matter of course. Most normal rational people caught up in this catastrophe do not react this way.


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## Guldal (Jan 5, 2020)

I thought, it wouldn't last long before the two loggerheads of 'IPCC Critics' would turn up here, too.....and here we go!

Bertold at least should be praised for showing some restraint - his comparison with the firestorms in Hamburg and Dresden seems actually quite apt in the current situation.

As for Stone: judge for yourselves. I, for my part, gather that "most normal rational people" wouldn't be too happy with a PM first making cutbacks in the rescue services, not meeting with their managements to discuss the implications, going on holiday during one of the most disastrous fire catastrophes in the country's history, and then showing up on your doorstep to 'show sympathy' in a feeble attempt to better his media image! I shall abstain from commenting on Stone's contemptous, prejudiced characterization of his compatriots.


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## Berthold (Jan 5, 2020)

Guldal said:


> I thought, it wouldn't last long before the two loggerheads of 'IPCC Critics' would turn up here, too.....and here we go!
> 
> Bert-h-old at least should be praised for showing some restraint - his comparison with the firestorms in Hamburg and Dresden seems actually quite apt in the current situation.



I would like to post much more about that subject but I don't know what 
I will only hope that the valley in the Blue Mountains with Wollemia nobilis, my favorite conifer, will not be destroyed by the fire.


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## BigBaby (Jan 5, 2020)

Stone said:


> No it's not. They are toothless, bong-smoking, ill-educated, ferals most probably non-working most of their lives and would probably hate ''conservative'' government as a matter of course. Most normal rational people caught up in this catastrophe do not react this way.



Wow! What an absolutely uncalled for and uncompassionate comment. This classist and borderline racist language is totally inappropriate. “Ferals?” Are you serious? Mods do you really tolerate this? Speaking about people experiencing loss in this way - you should be ashamed.


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## Guldal (Jan 5, 2020)

Berthold said:


> I would like to post much more about that subject ...



I gave you a 'like' for not doing that!


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## emydura (Jan 5, 2020)

Berthold said:


> I would like to post much more about that subject but I don't know what
> I will only hope that the valley in the Blue Mountains with Wollemia nobilis, my favorite conifer, will not be destroyed by the fire.



The only thing I have read on the Wollemi Pine is that there was concern that 3 of the 4 populations had been burnt. Although nothing has been confirmed as it is too remote and there is a lot of smoke in the area, so cannot see from the air.


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## troy (Jan 5, 2020)

In 2000 my sister and bro in law lost their 4200 sq ft custom home in a fire in so cal u.s....that was an insurance beurocratic nightmare took 2 years to get any kind compensation, that was a terrible loss... nothing like losing a life or causing a whole animal or insect species to go extinct..... damn!!!


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## Stone (Jan 5, 2020)

Guldal said:


> I thought, it wouldn't last long before the two loggerheads of 'IPCC Critics' would turn up here, too.....and here we go!
> 
> Bertold at least should be praised for showing some restraint - his comparison with the firestorms in Hamburg and Dresden seems actually quite apt in the current situation.
> 
> As for Stone: judge for yourselves. I, for my part, gather that "most normal rational people" wouldn't be too happy with a PM first making cutbacks in the rescue services, not meeting with their managements to discuss the implications, going on holiday during one of the most disastrous fire catastrophes in the country's history, and then showing up on your doorstep to 'show sympathy' in a feeble attempt to better his media image! I shall abstain from commenting on Stone's contemptous, prejudiced characterization of his compatriots.



You have no idea what either you or I are talking about. My comment was directed exclusively to the rabid, frothing-at-the-mouth reaction to the PM who was simply trying to do his duty of making himself available to the victims. The fact that he took a holiday during the fires was ill advised - politically. The fact that politicians of any persuasion show up at such events is ALWAYS political and to be expected. It has little consequence. I entirely stick by my comments of the reaction of these disgusting knuckle draggers given that the vast majority of the victims are thankful for any attention by authority. The reason that this particular fiasco gained so much attention was completely due to the opportunistic politicization and click bait of the media. I am equally - yes equally - critical of the disgusting propaganda video put out by the government spouting the mobilization of the ADF with cringe worthy dance music playing in the background. Morrison deserves every criticism he gets for it. It was absolutely vial garbage.


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## Stone (Jan 5, 2020)

BigBaby said:


> Wow! What an absolutely uncalled for and uncompassionate comment. This classist and borderline racist language is totally inappropriate. “Ferals?” Are you serious? Mods do you really tolerate this? Speaking about people experiencing loss in this way - you should be ashamed.



The mere fact that you chose the term ''borderline racist'' illustrates that your level of understanding is still in an embryonic stage concerning this subject and not really worthy of reply given that they are the same ''race'' as me. As for ''classist'', you have no knowledge at all of my background or who I have and do associate with but for your information I tend to judge people on their character not their ''class''.


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## Elf (Jan 5, 2020)

emydura said:


> For wildlife lovers, this article discusses how numerous species are now likely to become extinct from the widespread fires.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/environ...angered-species-extinction?CMP=share_btn_link



Thank you for this article - the tragedy of this situation and the potential loss of so many species has been on my mind. The article mentions one orchid, _*Thelymitra cyanapicata*. _Are there others that are known to be at risk at this point? I'm not so familiar with what Orchidaceae species are endemic to Australia, but I suppose it includes my beloved Aussie Dens  Hoping for better days ahead for all those in the fire's path.


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## Berthold (Jan 6, 2020)

Elf said:


> Thank you for this article - the tragedy of this situation and the potential loss of so many species has been on my mind. The article mentions one orchid, _*Thelymitra cyanapicata*. _Are there others that are known to be at risk at this point? I'm not so familiar with what Orchidaceae species are endemic to Australia, but I suppose it includes my beloved Aussie Dens  Hoping for better days ahead for all those in the fire's path.



Mankind doesn't need as many species of orchids to survive. But I love as many species as possible.


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## Guldal (Jan 6, 2020)

Berthold said:


> Mankind doesn't need as many species of orchids to survive.



Orchids on the other hand would definately have been better off without mankind! 

Said one, who also love as many species as possible!


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## Berthold (Jan 6, 2020)

Guldal said:


> Orchids on the other hand would definitely have been better off without mankind!


Be careful please. In Central Europe, orchids mostly follow the humans made cultural landscape, because most of them hate deep and dark woods.

That means no men no orchids. Some people say no orchids no men, but that is wrong.
But you can say the same about orchids as about poodles, a life without poodles is possible but pointless.


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## BigBaby (Jan 6, 2020)

Stone said:


> The mere fact that you chose the term ''borderline racist'' illustrates that your level of understanding is still in an embryonic stage concerning this subject and not really worthy of reply given that they are the same ''race'' as me. As for ''classist'', you have no knowledge at all of my background or who I have and do associate with but for your information I tend to judge people on their character not their ''class''.



I think you may be mistaken but dragging out your name calling into as many words or syllables as possible doesn’t make it valid in any way. Who you are or where you come from do not remove the racist and classist connotations from your words either. But surely I could never contend with your superior intelligence - get a life.


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## Stone (Jan 6, 2020)

BigBaby said:


> I think you may be mistaken but dragging out your name calling into as many words or syllables as possible doesn’t make it valid in any way. Who you are or where you come from do not remove the racist and classist connotations from your words either. But surely I could never contend with your superior intelligence - get a life.


Your name is well chosen


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## emydura (Jan 7, 2020)

Elf said:


> Thank you for this article - the tragedy of this situation and the potential loss of so many species has been on my mind. The article mentions one orchid, _*Thelymitra cyanapicata*. _Are there others that are known to be at risk at this point? I'm not so familiar with what Orchidaceae species are endemic to Australia, but I suppose it includes my beloved Aussie Dens  Hoping for better days ahead for all those in the fire's path.



I am not 100% sure of other potential orchid species that may be at risk from these fires. I expect there may be other terrestrial species that could be in trouble as there are many species that have a very localised distribution and are at risk of being wiped out. Although many terrestrial orchids would be dormant at this time of year underground, so hopefully they are safe from the fires. I wouldn't think there would be any Dendrobiums at risk as most of the species that occur in these fire ravaged areas tend to be fairly widely distributed. As the article details, there are plenty of other threatened non-orchid species that have very limited distributions that could be in a lot of trouble. The sheer scale of these fires have never been seen before and will only continue to grow over the coming months. The bulk of their ranges could be burnt out.

On Kangaroo Island they are reporting that around 25,000 of the 50,000 koalas have been killed. It is the only population of Koalas that is free from Clamydia.


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## abax (Jan 7, 2020)

David, is there anything Americans as individuals
can do to help?


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## Ozpaph (Jan 8, 2020)

Not really, abax.
Though it would be nice to avoid WW3..................


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## emydura (Jan 8, 2020)

abax said:


> David, is there anything Americans as individuals
> can do to help?



Donations I guess. It is astonishing how much money is being raised around the world. Celeste Barber has helped raise $45 million alone. Social media has its good points.


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## Berthold (Jan 8, 2020)

I don't know, but was there a wrong forest management in the potential fire areas in the last decade, so that the today fires have to much food? 
That was a common failing in Mediterranean and Californian regions. But administration learned.


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## ehanes7612 (Jan 8, 2020)

https://weather.com/news/news/2020-01-07-australia-bushfires-arrests-arson


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## emydura (Jan 8, 2020)

ehanes7612 said:


> https://weather.com/news/news/2020-01-07-australia-bushfires-arrests-arson



https://www.theguardian.com/austral...le-in-australian-bushfires?CMP=share_btn_link


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## ehanes7612 (Jan 8, 2020)

go figure...that's good to hear


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## Stone (Jan 8, 2020)

Berthold said:


> I don't know, but was there a wrong forest management in the potential fire areas in the last decade, so that the today fires have to much food?
> That was a common failing in Mediterranean and Californian regions. But administration learned.


The days when the aborigines burned vast areas of land (pretty much the whole country) over thousands of years (not controlled burns mind you, just burns) to enable them to flush out food, to destroy their enemies etc., are over. The Australian bush has changed since then. It has been estimated that the bush now has 10 times the amount of fuel it did before white man came. I can't imagine there will be enough fuel reduction in the short term (10 years) All you need is drought, low humidity heat and wind - in other words the weather (not climate) we have this summer and it will explode. Victoria's fire season is just starting and it is the most fire prone area in the world. The conditions and fires we see today are a completely natural result of the changed landscape. Thankfully where I am has been the wettest part of the country this year. One thing that should be done is to ban the planting of Eucalyptus with 10 miles of built-up human habitation and replace them with oaks. I think it would be a good policy for the future.
As for the ridiculous claims of extinction by some wet-behind-the-ears types it shows a fundamental lack of understanding about how nature and particularly Australian nature works. Any vacuum of species created by fires will quickly (or slowly) be filled. I have seen this on my own property.


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## Ozpaph (Jan 9, 2020)

Abax, I'm well aware of that. And I agree, time for reflection and tolerance.


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## troy (Jan 9, 2020)

I just turned on the news station that I turn off on my own t.v. uugghhh oh well


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## Stone (Jan 11, 2020)

For all the catastrophist morons including ''scientists'' who said that the Black Saturday fires were so bad that the soil itself burned and that the seed bank burned and that the trees were all killed and that the forest would never recover and that this is ''unprecedented'' and that ''this is different'' and the ''new normal'' and all the other completely and utterly contemptible politically driven brain dead bullshit they spew.
Welcome to the Australian bush and how it works....


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## ehanes7612 (Jan 12, 2020)

It's well known that fire is vital to many ecosystems (the devastating fire in Yellowstone decades ago proved this )...and there are lessons to be learned from these fires, similar to the lessons that we are learning in the US west coast. It still doesn't undo the devastation that people are facing....and the emotions that arise from being human in the face of this devastation. I can't imagine any reasonable person not feeling an emotional wrenching from the videos and pictures of loss of animal life as well and the feeling of being helpless. I think for the time being, it's excusable to have these emotions and to express them in hyperbole..it helps to make sense of things. People are just people.


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## troy (Jan 12, 2020)

My immediate family have been a victim of fire destruction, I personally understand the grief. I was referring to the off topic subject of Donald trump mentioned above, has nothing to do with the australian fire catastrophe


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## Stone (Jan 12, 2020)

ehanes7612 said:


> It's well known that fire is vital to many ecosystems (the devastating fire in Yellowstone decades ago proved this )...and there are lessons to be learned from these fires, similar to the lessons that we are learning in the US west coast. It still doesn't undo the devastation that people are facing....and the emotions that arise from being human in the face of this devastation. I can't imagine any reasonable person not feeling an emotional wrenching from the videos and pictures of loss of animal life as well and the feeling of being helpless. I think for the time being, it's excusable to have these emotions and to express them in hyperbole..it helps to make sense of things. People are just people.


I cannot argue with this.


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## Stone (Jan 12, 2020)

Guldal said:


> Oh dear...so much for "reflection and tolerance"!



Sorry, I have no tolerance for the zombie protesters who mass around our major cities knowing less that zero about what they are saying. It's a mass neurosis or psychosis which while interesting to witness, never the less makes me feel kind of hopeless. It seems to have been taken up in direct proportion to the abandonment of traditional religion which makes me think that some people just need something to believe in. But tolerance? No. respect? Definitely none.


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## Elf (Jan 12, 2020)

I dug around a bit in the forum's settings and located the ignore feature - highly recommended, as I can no longer see anything unpleasant in this thread (other than the actual topic at hand, which is very sad).


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## Berthold (Jan 13, 2020)

Guldal said:


> Oh dear...so much for "reflection and tolerance"! (see post just above )
> 
> 
> 
> ...



I think many Danes are not very familiar with bush fires the size of Denmark. The same could apply to the residents of Luxembourg or Andorra.


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## Berthold (Jan 13, 2020)

Ozpaph said:


> actually, my comment was directed at the Iraq 'situation'. Just to clarify.


That was very clear for me and You have my full agreement


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## cnycharles (Jan 14, 2020)

I’ve been here since 2008, and it’s pretty simple to just not be around certain threads where certain people may congregate. Also, with a little self training a person can choose to not be ‘offended’ by objectionable things. The world is full of things that can irritate, but we can’t allow our buttons to be pushed by everyone. If a person bothers, then don’t be around them or let them bother you. Choosing to not react is freeing


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## Guldal (Jan 14, 2020)

cnycharles said:


> The world is full of things that can irritate, but we can’t allow our buttons to be pushed by everyone. If a person bothers, then don’t be around them or let them bother you. Choosing to not react is freeing



Wisely spoken, Charles! 

In the best tradition of Chuang Tzu and others, who recommended the path of non-engagement as a viable way!


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## ehanes7612 (Jan 14, 2020)

People get hot headed sometimes (like me) ..I have my differences with stone and berthold but I think everyone here are good people..even berthold and stone. If I really hated them, I would be hating some of my family and friends who have the same views as them. Tragic events like the fires in Australia put things into perspective. The bickering is really inconsequential in light of the goodwill people have expressed.


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## Berthold (Jan 14, 2020)

ehanes7612 said:


> I think everyone here are good people..even berthold and stone.



I'm not sure if everyone here is a good person, but I can assure you, Stone and Berthold are.

Of course people get hot headed by a fire like the actual Australian disaster.


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## Ozpaph (Jan 15, 2020)

Charles, absolutely agree. 
If you dont like what's on TV, change the channel or switch off...............


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## Hoppy (Jan 15, 2020)

Berthold said:


> I will only hope that the valley in the Blue Mountains with Wollemia nobilis, my favorite conifer, will not be destroyed by the fire.



A small glimmer of hope

https://www.smh.com.au/environment/...es-famous-dinosaur-trees-20200115-p53rom.html


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## Phred (Jan 15, 2020)

cnycharles said:


> I’ve been here since 2008, and it’s pretty simple to just not be around certain threads where certain people may congregate. Also, with a little self training a person can choose to not be ‘offended’ by objectionable things. The world is full of things that can irritate, but we can’t allow our buttons to be pushed by everyone. If a person bothers, then don’t be around them or let them bother you. Choosing to not react is freeing


So true... one has to ‘take’ offense. The choice is ours


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## NYEric (Jan 15, 2020)

Trolling and internet rudeness has always existed. It is actually quite civil on this forum.


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## Berthold (Jan 15, 2020)

NYEric said:


> Trolling and internet rudeness has always existed. It is actually quite civil on this forum.



Yes, the only problem still is that not everyone is of the same opinion.


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## ehanes7612 (Jan 15, 2020)

Curious, Berthold..where are you on the spectrum?


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## LadySlipper (Jan 15, 2020)

Well since members were commenting on no moderation. I just took some posts out of this thread. Since I don't really know any of you there is really no possible bias on it. 
I see the thread became more civilized for the 9 posts above this one.

And I am going to be searching for mods, probably 2 and have made a post about in in Talk Back area.

I see that this is in Off Topics and that is usually a little more 'free for all" than in the Orchid forums and topics.


----------



## Guldal (Jan 15, 2020)

Angie said:


> Well since members were commenting on no moderation. I just took some posts out of this thread. Since I don't really know any of you there is really no possible bias on it.
> I see the thread became more civilized for the 9 posts above this one.



"So shines a good deed in a naughty world"


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## Berthold (Jan 15, 2020)

ehanes7612 said:


> Curious, Berthold..where are you on the spectrum?


I am on the scientific side of course. I am not religious, You know.


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## emydura (Jan 16, 2020)

Ozpaph said:


> Charles, absolutely agree.
> If you dont like what's on TV, change the channel or switch off...............



Unfortunately a lot of people on this forum have decided to switch off.


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## emydura (Jan 16, 2020)

Hoppy said:


> A small glimmer of hope
> 
> https://www.smh.com.au/environment/...es-famous-dinosaur-trees-20200115-p53rom.html



That was an incredible effort by the firefighters to save those pines. The whole area surrounding the pines was burnt but they managed to stop the fire getting into the canyon and wiping out the species.


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## Berthold (Jan 16, 2020)

A good job by the firefighters, my gratulation


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## Stone (Jan 16, 2020)

Berthold said:


> A good job by the firefighters, my gratulation


Yes I'm sure they have never had a fire in that area in the past hundred thousand years. The real reason the trees are still there is because they are in a canyon. I just cannot believe the on-going bullshit coming from left, right and centre. Is it that people just cannot think or don't want to?


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## Berthold (Jan 17, 2020)

Stone said:


> Yes I'm sure they have never had a fire in that area in the past hundred thousand years. The real reason the trees are still there is because they are in a canyon.


Yes I see it in the same way.


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## Guldal (Jan 17, 2020)

Berthold said:


> Yes I see it in the same way.



OMG! Stop press...that's indeed front page news!


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## emydura (Jan 18, 2020)

Stone said:


> Yes I'm sure they have never had a fire in that area in the past hundred thousand years. The real reason the trees are still there is because they are in a canyon. I just cannot believe the on-going bullshit coming from left, right and centre. Is it that people just cannot think or don't want to?



They have had plenty of fires in this region over the last 100 thousand years. That is why this species is down to one last population in a single canyon. This genus use to be widespread across Australia, New Zealand and Antarctica. But the drying of the continent and the prevalence of fires since Indigenous people colonised Australia has seen this species contract to a single population. It is a bit of a miracle it has survived and it is really only a matter of time before a catastrophic event finishes this species off. It is now only humans that can help keep this species alive.

This canyon is normally very wet which has helped protect it from fires in the past. But as we have seen with the recent fires, areas that normally never catch fire are now burning -

rainforests of Queensland - https://www.theguardian.com/austral...-burned-for-10-days-and-almost-no-one-noticed
King Billy and pencil pine forests in Tasmania - https://www.theguardian.com/environ...ragedy-unfolds-in-tasmania?CMP=share_btn_link

Given how dry it has been, it is pretty likely that canyon would have burnt as well if not for the firefighters drenching the whole area. A few trees did actually catch fire and were killed.


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## Berthold (Jan 18, 2020)

emydura said:


> It is a bit of a miracle it has survived and it is really only a matter of time before a catastrophic event finishes this species off.


So Mike is right when he writes that there has never been a fire in this valley


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## emydura (Jan 18, 2020)

The fires have a lot of flow on affects to the natural environment. Heavy rain have washed ash into the river, deoxygenating the water resulting in huge numbers of fish suffocating. 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...fire-ash-washed-into-river?CMP=share_btn_link


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## Berthold (Jan 18, 2020)

Guldal said:


> OMG! Stop press...that's indeed front page news!


Jens, I think climate change is not a suitable play ground for psychologists, at least not yet. First Greta et al. should create even more hysteria in humans.


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## emydura (Jan 18, 2020)

Berthold said:


> So Mike is right when he writes that there has never been a fire in this valley



That is not the issue. Just because they have dodged fires in the past doesn't mean they would have survived these fires. These fires were incredibly intense and the landscape bone dry. If ever they were going to burn, this was the time. Rainforests have been burning in this country and they would be much more fire resistant than this canyon.

I know this area well. There are lots of canyons in this region that are exactly like the one with the Wollemi Pines except they have no pines in them. Fire would have killed these in the past like they have over a lot of their range. Eventually fire will get the current population as well. It is really only a matter of time. With the help of firefighters, the pines dodged a bullet. They may not be so lucky next time.

There is an argument that money and resources should not be spent on a species that is naturally heading for extinction. The Wollemi Pine was well on the path to extinction before Europeans settled in Australia.


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## Berthold (Jan 18, 2020)

emydura said:


> There is an argument that money and resources should not be spent on a species that is naturally heading for extinction. The Wollemi Pine was well on the path to extinction before Europeans settled in Australia.


yes, there are many plants and animals in the world that experience the same fate. But I'm not really worried about Wollemia because it is now successful in culture worldwide.
The stable genetics of this species prevent evolutionary further development.


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## Ozpaph (Jan 18, 2020)

emydura said:


> Unfortunately a lot of people on this forum have decided to switch off.


That's a pity.


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## TropiCool (Jan 18, 2020)

Angie said:


> Well since members were commenting on no moderation. I just took some posts out of this thread. Since I don't really know any of you there is really no possible bias on it.
> I see the thread became more civilized for the 9 posts above this one.
> 
> And I am going to be searching for mods, probably 2 and have made a post about in in Talk Back area.
> ...


Thanks Angie, much appreciated.


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## emydura (Jan 18, 2020)

Berthold said:


> yes, there are many plants and animals in the world that experience the same fate. But I'm not really worried about Wollemia because it is now successful in culture worldwide.
> The stable genetics of this species prevent evolutionary further development.



True. I was at a friends place last night who had a Wollemi pine he had been growing for 17 years. It was about 3 metres high. This species will always be safe now that it is so widely grown across the world.

There is little genetic diversity in wollemi pines (only 3 individuals). Point 6 in this link (coppicing) suggests that fires have been in this canyon before killing most plants but a few individuals survived and regenerated by coppicing. Most of the trees are clones. I dare say if fire got in this time they would have been unlikely to survive.

There is very little sexual reproduction in this species. From an evolutionary perspective it is already functionally extinct.

https://www.rbgsyd.nsw.gov.au/Stories/2016/Genetic-diversity-discovered-in-Wollemi-Pine-for-t


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## ehanes7612 (Jan 18, 2020)

see below


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## ehanes7612 (Jan 18, 2020)

Berthold said:


> yes, there are many plants and animals in the world that experience the same fate. But I'm not really worried about Wollemia because it is now successful in culture worldwide.
> The stable genetics of this species prevent evolutionary further development.







Not necessarily. Cultivated species are prone to disease as much as non cultivated trees and because there is little to no genetic drift in the varieties, they rarely develop genetic immunity to new pests and since the genetic diveristy is dwindling as Emydura notes, it becomes an ever increasing problem. Case in point, Dutch Elm Trees, which came close to being wiped out (once a very hardy and dominant fixture in many neighborhoods)..and there are other examples of cultivated species actually going extinct.


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## Berthold (Jan 18, 2020)

ehanes7612 said:


> there is little to no genetic drift in the varieties, they rarely develop genetic immunity to new pests and since the genetic diveristy is dwindling as Emydura notes, it becomes an ever increasing problem.



I don't see a problem in that point. It is a great luck for all life in the world, that species disappear again.

We found these mammoth teeth near by about 26000 years old, but I am very happy that they disappeared.
First tooth is from a baby.

My favorite pet on my avatar was attacked by a virus but i think it survived.


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## ehanes7612 (Jan 18, 2020)

yes, it will be a better world with much less diversity...because things like Dutch Elms and Wollenia are too dangerous


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## Stone (Jan 18, 2020)

> emydura
> 
> It is now only humans that can help keep this species alive.



Nonsense. Just leave them alone and they will continue to live until nature decides their time is up. They have managed without humans for god knows how many millennia but now only humans who have been here a couple of hundred years can do the job? I don't think so. That notion lives in the minds of arrogant humans but not reality. Do you really believe that if they were not discovered a decade ago they would die out more quickly than if they hadn't? Can't you see the stupidity if that concept? This species is on the way out due to a drying climate as you say. Leave them alone and stop trying to interfere with a natural process.



> This canyon is normally very wet which has helped protect it from fires in the past. But as we have seen with the recent fires, areas that normally never catch fire are now burning -



Yes and it will be wet again and dry again. We are currently in a dry 2-3 year period. No trend in drought in Australia. It has been this dry before, not often, but it most certainly has.
http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/clima...gi?graph=rranom&area=aus&season=0112&ave_yr=7




> rainforests of Queensland - https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2019/nov/24/world-heritage-queensland-rainforest-burned-for-10-days-and-almost-no-one-noticed
> King Billy and pencil pine forests in Tasmania - https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jan/27/world-heritage-forests-burn-as-global-tragedy-unfolds-in-tasmania?CMP=share_btn_link



See above.


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## Berthold (Jan 19, 2020)

ehanes7612 said:


> yes, it will be a better world with much less diversity..


Yes, it would really be a much better world for me if there were fewer types of bacteria, viruses, insects and venomous snakes and spiders, etc.
I hate all living things who want to kill or eat me, inclusive warriors.


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## emydura (Jan 19, 2020)

Stone said:


> Do you really believe that if they were not discovered a decade ago they would die out more quickly than if they hadn't? Can't you see the stupidity if that concept?
> .



I can only see the stupidity in your reply. If the Wollemi Pine was not discovered in 1994, it would now be extinct. The Gosper Mountains fire was burning everything in its path. A fire sensitive species such as the Wollemi Pine would have had little chance. It only survived due to firefighters drenching the canyon. Not only have humans ensured this population has survived for now, they have also established a couple of more populations in the Wollemi National Park. On top of this humans have propagated millions (literally) of Wollemi Pines which are now grown all around the world. There would be more Wollemi Pines growing now than has been the case for thousands of years. To say that the Wollemi Pine is no more secure now than it was before 1994 is just illogical. 

If you don't believe me, then read this article by James Woodford who is the author of the book "The Wollemi Pine: The Incredible Discovery of a Living Fossil from the Age of the Dinosaurs". He backs up everything I have said. With all due respect, I would put his knowledge way ahead of your own.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/17/wollemi-pines-time-travellers-from-a-different-australia?CMP=share_btn_link


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## emydura (Jan 20, 2020)

Elf said:


> Thank you for this article - the tragedy of this situation and the potential loss of so many species has been on my mind. The article mentions one orchid, _*Thelymitra cyanapicata*. _Are there others that are known to be at risk at this point? I'm not so familiar with what Orchidaceae species are endemic to Australia, but I suppose it includes my beloved Aussie Dens  Hoping for better days ahead for all those in the fire's path.



Released today was a comprehensive list of species that are under most threat of extinction from the bushfires in Australia. There are around 25 species of orchid included. Two are *epiphytic* orchids (Sarcochilus), the rest are terrestrial. 

https://www.theguardian.com/environ...cies-australian-bushfires-towards-extinction?


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## Berthold (Jan 20, 2020)

Berthold said:


> I don't know, but was there a wrong forest management in the potential fire areas in the last decade, so that the today fires have to much food?
> That was a common failing in Mediterranean and Californian regions. But administration learned.



Stephan Pyne confirms my guess

"What Australia needs is more fires "
The American fire expert Stephen Pyne explains what can be learned from the Australian inferno and why it is dangerous to suppress natural forces.


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## Berthold (Jan 20, 2020)

emydura said:


> On top of this humans have propagated millions (literally) of Wollemi Pines which are now grown all around the world. There would be more Wollemi Pines growing now than has been the case for thousands of years. To say that the Wollemi Pine is no more secure now than it was before 1994 is just illogical.



Mike didn't say that. Mike said the Wollemi Pine is no more secure today without human assistance. In that I fully agree.
There are a lot of living plants, animals and even human indigenous which are no longer safe today mostly due to diseases or climate change in the last 20000 years


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## Berthold (Jan 20, 2020)

emydura said:


> With all due respect, I would put his knowledge way ahead of your own.




Why that? In my opinion, Mike didn't say anything wrong


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## troy (Jan 20, 2020)

I heard those fires were set by arson, is that true?


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## Berthold (Jan 20, 2020)

troy said:


> I heard those fires were set by arson, is that true?



only true by 10%


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## Ray (Jan 20, 2020)

I don’t know the regions beyond my own observations from a single visit decades ago, but I get the impression that they’re what we’d call “chaparral”, with trees and underbrush. Such areas are supposed to be “cleansed by fire” periodically. That is typical of parts of California, and here in the southeast US, we have similar scenarios, and there are a plants and trees that won’t even reproduce until they are exposed to it.

The problem comes in when the fires are unnaturally suppressed for years, so that ground-level fuel supply gets denser and denser. So, instead of a brief fire that burns off the above-ground tinder in a flash, you end up with very intense fire that takes out trees and cooks the soil, killing root systems and everything else. Then (California is a great example) when rains come, there is nothing to anchor the soil, so mudslides and general erosion occur.

All of the issues are man-made, as we overbuild and “manage” areas that should be left pristine and allow nature to take its course. However, what’s done is done, so arguing about the point is ridiculous.


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## Berthold (Jan 20, 2020)

Ray said:


> I don’t know the regions beyond my own observations from a single visit decades ago, but I get the impression that they’re what we’d call “chaparral”, with trees and underbrush. Such areas are supposed to be “cleansed by fire” periodically. That is typical of parts of California, and here in the southeast US, we have similar scenarios, and there are a plants and trees that won’t even reproduce until they are exposed to it.
> 
> The problem comes in when the fires are unnaturally suppressed for years, so that ground-level fuel supply gets denser and denser. So, instead of a brief fire that burns off the above-ground tinder in a flash, you end up with very intense fire that takes out trees and cooks the soil, killing root systems and everything else. Then (California is a great example) when rains come, there is nothing to anchor the soil, so mudslides and general erosion occur.
> 
> All of the issues are man-made, as we overbuild and “manage” areas that should be left pristine and allow nature to take its course. However, what’s done is done, so arguing about the point is ridiculous.



Yes, that is exactly, what I meant in my post #87


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## NYEric (Jan 20, 2020)

I'm trying to not get involved in this but there are a few things I must say. Homo sapiens is the animal species with the fastest growing population on the planet. We are also the species that changes the planet the most, in positive and negative ways. As we effect changes we need to be more aware of the affects and try to destroy/disturb as little as possible.


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## Elf (Jan 20, 2020)

emydura said:


> Released today was a comprehensive list of species that are under most threat of extinction from the bushfires in Australia. There are around 25 species of orchid included. Two are *epiphytic* orchids (Sarcochilus), the rest are terrestrial.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/environ...cies-australian-bushfires-towards-extinction?



Thank you for posting this - how sad, though :-(


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## emydura (Jan 20, 2020)

Ray said:


> I don’t know the regions beyond my own observations from a single visit decades ago, but I get the impression that they’re what we’d call “chaparral”, with trees and underbrush. Such areas are supposed to be “cleansed by fire” periodically. That is typical of parts of California, and here in the southeast US, we have similar scenarios, and there are a plants and trees that won’t even reproduce until they are exposed to it.
> 
> The problem comes in when the fires are unnaturally suppressed for years, so that ground-level fuel supply gets denser and denser. So, instead of a brief fire that burns off the above-ground tinder in a flash, you end up with very intense fire that takes out trees and cooks the soil, killing root systems and everything else. Then (California is a great example) when rains come, there is nothing to anchor the soil, so mudslides and general erosion occur.
> 
> All of the issues are man-made, as we overbuild and “manage” areas that should be left pristine and allow nature to take its course. However, what’s done is done, so arguing about the point is ridiculous.



Ray - every time there is a fire here this argument is immediately thrown up. However, it is not supported by the evidence nor supported by the experts or fire chiefs. It is simply incorrect to say that these fires would not have occurred if fuel reuction had occurred. Backburning plays a role but is only one part of fire management. The reality is when you have catastrophic fire condition, it is the weather that is primarily driving the fire. When the temperature is 45oC, the humidity is zero and the winds are 80 kms an hour, you don't need a lot of fuel to sustain a fire. In the third link below the NSW Fire Commissioner said this - _He also said the burns did nothing to combat the massive "mega-fires" burning in NSW. "Hazard reduction burns that are only two years old, we're seeing these fires on these bad days just skip straight through it," he said. "We're only seeing effective amelioration on fire spread through hazard reduction areas that have been done so in the last 12 months." 
_
The Royal Commission into the catastrophic Victorian bushfires in 2009, showed that there was no difference in damage between areas that had previously backburned and those that had not.

Another theme in the links below, is that changing weather patterns to a longer, hotter, dryer planet has really narrowed the window in which prescribed burns can occur. It has become too dangerous to undertake burns throughout a lot of the year. There are many cases of prescribed burns getting out of control and doing serious damage.

It is very simplistic to say that these fires are purely due to a lack of prescribed burning. Fire management is way more complicated than that.


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-12-20/hazard-reduction-burns-bushfires/11817336

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01-10/hazard-reduction-burns-bushfire-prevention-explainer/11853366

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-01...eights-in-on-hazard-reduction-debate/11850862

https://www.smh.com.au/national/pre...re-reduce-bushfire-risks-20200106-p53paf.html


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## Ray (Jan 20, 2020)

Emydura, I believe you misconstrued the purpose of my post.

In my opinion, had such areas remained unpopulated and had been left on their own, such fires could certainly still happen. I did not say or mean to imply that had those areas been manually burned, none of this would have happened or been less bad. What I was TRYING to say is that such areas are not particularly good places to populate, but now that they have been, we just have to deal with the consequences.

When I see news about the fires in Australia, it makes me sick.


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## emydura (Jan 20, 2020)

Ray said:


> Emydura, I believe you misconstrued the purpose of my post.
> 
> In my opinion, had such areas remained unpopulated and had been left on their own, such fires could certainly still happen. I did not say or mean to imply that had those areas been manually burned, none of this would have happened or been less bad. What I was TRYING to say is that such areas are not particularly good places to populate, but now that they have been, we just have to deal with the consequences.
> 
> When I see news about the fires in Australia, it makes me sick.




Sorry Ray. I have misunderstood your post. Still it wasn’t totally wasted as it is relevant to a few other posts. 

You make a good point. A lot of these houses are located in fire traps. Before I moved to Canberra I lived in the Blue Mountains for many years. That is basically a regional city located in a national park with most streets surrounded by flammable eucalypt forests that burn regularly. It is always a disaster waiting to happen. In 2003, the fires roared up to my parents place. The garage and pergola caught fire but fortunately the firefighters were able to save the house. The houses around us burnt down. It is always just a matter a time before the fires will return.

The fire experts are imploring governments to stop building/rebuilding houses in such fire prone areas but it is unlikely anything will change.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/19/bushfire-destroyed-homes-should-not-be-rebuilt-in-riskiest-areas-experts-say?CMP=share_btn_link


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## Stone (Jan 20, 2020)

emydura said:


> I can only see the stupidity in your reply. If the Wollemi Pine was not discovered in 1994, it would now be extinct. The Gosper Mountains fire was burning everything in its path. A fire sensitive species such as the Wollemi Pine would have had little chance. It only survived due to firefighters drenching the canyon. Not only have humans ensured this population has survived for now, they have also established a couple of more populations in the Wollemi National Park. On top of this humans have propagated millions (literally) of Wollemi Pines which are now grown all around the world. There would be more Wollemi Pines growing now than has been the case for thousands of years. To say that the Wollemi Pine is no more secure now than it was before 1994 is just illogical.
> 
> If you don't believe me, then read this article by James Woodford who is the author of the book "The Wollemi Pine: The Incredible Discovery of a Living Fossil from the Age of the Dinosaurs". He backs up everything I have said. With all due respect, I would put his knowledge way ahead of your own.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2020/jan/17/wollemi-pines-time-travellers-from-a-different-australia?CMP=share_btn_link


So you are saying that by pure chance, white man came along at the exact time during it's multi million year history just when it was about to become extinct due to a fire in 2019, but not because of the 100,000 fires (?) it survived before that particular point in time?
Praise the LORD it is a miracle!


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## Stone (Jan 20, 2020)

Berthold said:


> Stephan Pyne confirms my guess
> 
> "What Australia needs is more fires "
> The American fire expert Stephen Pyne explains what can be learned from the Australian inferno and why it is dangerous to suppress natural forces.


Almost everyone except the climate people have now agreed on this fact. Including serious studies in the US.


----------



## Stone (Jan 20, 2020)

Ray said:


> I don’t know the regions beyond my own observations from a single visit decades ago, but I get the impression that they’re what we’d call “chaparral”, with trees and underbrush. Such areas are supposed to be “cleansed by fire” periodically. That is typical of parts of California, and here in the southeast US, we have similar scenarios, and there are a plants and trees that won’t even reproduce until they are exposed to it.
> 
> The problem comes in when the fires are unnaturally suppressed for years, so that ground-level fuel supply gets denser and denser. So, instead of a brief fire that burns off the above-ground tinder in a flash, you end up with very intense fire that takes out trees and cooks the soil, killing root systems and everything else. Then (California is a great example) when rains come, there is nothing to anchor the soil, so mudslides and general erosion occur.
> 
> All of the issues are man-made, as we overbuild and “manage” areas that should be left pristine and allow nature to take its course. However, what’s done is done, so arguing about the point is ridiculous.


Mr Ray is 100% correct. (apart from the need to argue the point). The argument that climate is to blame is pure political nonsense as illuminated in this excellent interview. Climate is just a set of statistics and has no power to do anything. Weather is the ruler.


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## Stone (Jan 20, 2020)

emydura said:


> Released today was a comprehensive list of species that are under most threat of extinction from the bushfires in Australia. There are around 25 species of orchid included. Two are *epiphytic* orchids (Sarcochilus), the rest are terrestrial.
> 
> https://www.theguardian.com/environ...cies-australian-bushfires-towards-extinction?


A load of garbage.


----------



## Stone (Jan 20, 2020)

NYEric said:


> I'm trying to not get involved in this but there are a few things I must say. Homo sapiens is the animal species with the fastest growing population on the planet. We are also the species that changes the planet the most, in positive and negative ways. As we effect changes we need to be more aware of the affects and try to destroy/disturb as little as possible.


Yes. That is called permanent natural habitat destruction due to human development. Fire is not in that category. The more severe the fire the longer it takes to re-establish, but re-establish it does. It is a process which has been going on forever and no doubt it has had a direct effect of the evolution of the species here. For example, the Koala, although badly affected by these severe fires which reach right up into the top canopy probably would not exist in it's present form if it were not for fire because the Eucalyptus would also not have evolved the way it has. Young scientists seem to love going out into a natural system and finding something wrong because they have a very simplistic, narrow view. We also must realize that humans are part of the natural system. The planet could not care less what happens to it's inhabitants.


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## Ozpaph (Jan 21, 2020)

emydura said:


> Sorry Ray. I have misunderstood your post. Still it wasn’t totally wasted as it is relevant to a few other posts.
> 
> 
> 
> ...


I think not being able to get insurance will also be a deterrent (though I suspect many of these homes weren't insured)


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## Linus_Cello (Jan 21, 2020)

Ozpaph said:


> I think not being able to get insurance will also be a deterrent (though I suspect many of these homes weren't insured)



interesting point. Is there political will for a “bailout” to provide funding to rebuild uninsured homes?


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## NYEric (Jan 22, 2020)

so Stone, you're saying that man does not affect climate including humidity?


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## Berthold (Jan 22, 2020)

NYEric said:


> so Stone, you're saying that man does not affect climate including humidity?



I say nobody knows about that by sure because data of the past are not available and all models of climate development do not fit the reality.

Therefore it makes no sense yet to invest several thousand billion $ or € in reducing CO2 emissions.
Maybe we should invest the money in building higher dykes and dams.


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## ehanes7612 (Jan 22, 2020)

RECAP: Neither Stone or Berthold currently believes that anthropogenic climate change exists. These are well established facts (Stone and Berthold not buying it)..do we really need to rehash it here?
We can all agree to disagree and move on.


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## Berthold (Jan 22, 2020)

ehanes7612 said:


> RECAP: Neither Stone or Berthold currently believes that anthropogenic climate change exists. These are well established facts (Stone and Berthold not buying it)..do we really need to rehash it here?
> We can all agree to disagree and move on.



Don't write this nonsense here please and read my post before writing.
I wrote, I don't *know* if there is an anthropogenic climate change and I think, that nobody knows about that yet.

Perhaps it is easier to understand for You:
I don't know if there is hostile human life somewhere in our galaxy. And I say there is no sense to invest 1000 of billion of $ in protecting against that yet, even if there are 97 "scientists" who saw some UFOs in the sky..


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## ehanes7612 (Jan 22, 2020)

Well, I had hoped with my wording you wouldnt take offense but i think you just like to take offense. That German sensibility maybe.
I didn't say if you knew or not , I said you "DONT BELIEVE"...which for most of us (because we are not climatologists) is the best we can achieve..we either believe it or not ( and varying degrees of not sure). I believe there is anthropogenic climate change but do I know it? that would be kinda arrogant ...and I have never said I know it exists.

And secondly, the conditions you give for proof COULD NOT exist for a long time, so in essence , you don't believe it, ..like the saying goes " I will believe it when I see it" ...that's YOU!


Like I have said before...be very specific about your language..you leave too much for the imagination


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## ehanes7612 (Jan 22, 2020)

Anyway, good to see the Australian Open able to be played with the smoke in the air...hope the winds dont change


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## Berthold (Jan 22, 2020)

ehanes7612 said:


> I didn't say if you knew or not , I said you "DONT BELIEVE"...


It is a stupid insinuation from You, because You don't know, what I believe.


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## ehanes7612 (Jan 22, 2020)

hmmm..Okay, probably stupid but I believe you don't believe but you believe to not believe or believe or to believe what people know what you believe..well, we can just agree to disagree...believe me

or maybe you believe it does exist but .....the possibilities are endless


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## Ray (Jan 22, 2020)

Will you two please cut the crap.


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## ehanes7612 (Jan 22, 2020)

Eric started it (just kidding) ..actually, I started it last year or the year before with a tongue and cheek post about peaches growing in Montana...and through certain people pressing about the reality of climate change or not ..we have gotten to this point..where a thread about remembering those who have suffered in the fires has turned into a soapbox for anyone. That's what this thread is...I am just playing along now. "The Moderator" is free to moderate and remove the posts..I dont care...sorry, no offense intended. Actually, I wish I could be removed from ST permanently so I wont be tempted to respond to this crap show..I just have no self control.


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## Ray (Jan 22, 2020)

ehanes7612 said:


> Actually, I wish I could be removed from ST permanently so I wont be tempted to respond to this crap show..I just have no self control.


That can be arranged, you know.


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## Berthold (Jan 22, 2020)

Ray said:


> That can be arranged, you know.


Isn't it a job for a psychotherapist instead of forum moderator?


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## Stone (Jan 22, 2020)

NYEric said:


> so Stone, you're saying that man does not affect climate including humidity?


I think that humans are capable of influencing local climate including humidity from forest removal and building cities etc. I believe that it is very difficult if not impossible to distinguish that ''footprint'' from the noise of natural variability. Same goes for co2. For example, the correlation of increased co2 and rising temps does not prove causation simply because of the above point. But there are also other considerations like co2 saturation and heat transfer. In other words, no one knows and if they say they do, they are just whistling Dixie.


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## ehanes7612 (Jan 22, 2020)

Ray said:


> That can be arranged, you know.


Hmm, a veiled threat, you must have teenagers...please do it..I've tried to figure it out


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## Ozpaph (Jan 22, 2020)

Linus_Cello said:


> interesting point. Is there political will for a “bailout” to provide funding to rebuild uninsured homes?


There will be some financial assistance but the government isnt in the 'business' of providing full re-recompense for natural disasters.


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## Berthold (Jan 23, 2020)

Stone said:


> I think that humans are capable of influencing local climate including humidity from forest removal and building cities etc. I believe that it is very difficult if not impossible to distinguish that ''footprint'' from the noise of natural variability. Same goes for co2. For example, the correlation of increased co2 and rising temps does not prove causation simply because of the above point. But there are also other considerations like co2 saturation and heat transfer. In other words, no one knows and if they say they do, they are just whistling Dixie.



In addition: Karte (nach Dansgaard et al, 1969 und Schönwiese, 1995) des GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam for the time long before the USA


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## Ray (Jan 23, 2020)

Berthold said:


> Isn't it a job for a psychotherapist instead of forum moderator?


Come now, mild-mannered Berthold, the same might be said of you!


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## Berthold (Jan 23, 2020)

Ray said:


> Come now, mild-mannered Berthold, the same might be said of you!


Ray, I checked it. My psychoanalyst says everything is fine with me and I am a Forum moderator too.


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## Ray (Jan 23, 2020)

Me too.


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## Berthold (Jan 23, 2020)

Fine, I like discussions with mentally healthy forum visitors.


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## Berthold (Jan 25, 2020)

I took this foto 15 years ago


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## Berthold (Feb 1, 2020)

Are the bush fires in Australia extinguished?
How many billions of living beings have died? Are numbers already known?
In Hamburg we only had 40000.


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## orchid527 (Feb 1, 2020)

Berthold said:


> Are the bush fires in Australia extinguished?
> How many billions of living beings have died? Are numbers already known?
> In Hamburg we only had 40000.


You are not including the 42,900 that died nearby in Neuengamme, but they probably died before they were incinerated.


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## TropiCool (Feb 1, 2020)

No, the fires are just moving to fresh fuel. But the media got bored with covering it. Although it's hot news, it isn't brand new enough for their click-bait desires.
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/31/australia/australia-fire-canberra-intl/index.html


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## Berthold (Feb 1, 2020)

orchid527 said:


> You are not including the 42,900 that died nearby in Neuengamme, but they probably died before they were incinerated.


Yes, You are right, I have to subtract that number and a lot more of course.


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## emydura (Feb 1, 2020)

TropiCool said:


> No, the fires are just moving to fresh fuel. But the media got bored with covering it. Although it's hot news, it isn't brand new enough for their click-bait desires.
> https://edition.cnn.com/2020/01/31/australia/australia-fire-canberra-intl/index.html



That is where I live. The fires have been threatening the city for the last couple of days. It has been insanely hot here - 42oC yesterday and the day before. Yesterday look bleak with strong winds but the fire was blown in a different direction. The weather looks cooler next week, so we might be OK for now.

Plenty of fires still burning. They will likely still burn for a month or more. It all depends on whether we get the catastrophic fire conditions.


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## Ray (Feb 1, 2020)

I just hope they stay away from you and go out quickly.


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## Ozpaph (Feb 3, 2020)

The weather is crazy. We have had heavy rain on and off for over a week; none near David, unfortunately. That's what's really needed.


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## Ray (Feb 4, 2020)

Same here year before last - we got double what our normal annual rainfall, while the west coast burned.


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## Stone (Feb 6, 2020)

From the CSIRO..





They go to say that ''there is a potential for fire activity to increase or decrease due to climate change''.

Slowly the alarmists who cry hysterically that CC has lead to these fires will be dragged kicking and screaming into reality.


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## emydura (Feb 6, 2020)

Ozpaph said:


> The weather is crazy. We have had heavy rain on and off for over a week; none near David, unfortunately. That's what's really needed.



I believe we will start getting some rain tomorrow and some heavier rain from Saturday for 4 or 5 days. We sure need it. As I was riding home today I could see fires burning in the southern part of the ACT. Hopefully this forecast rain can put them out.


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## emydura (Feb 6, 2020)

Ozpaph said:


> The weather is crazy. .



The weather has been as crazy as all hell. In between the extreme heat and fires, we had the most destructive hail storm I have ever experienced. It was complete carnage. The fibreglass panels on my pergola was destroyed. One of the solar panels on my HWS was smashed. The polycarbonate panels on my Paph house were badly damaged. I am probably going to have to replace half of them. The panels were 10mm twin walled. In some cases the hail has gone right through. Our garden was shredded.

The hail was the size of golf balls, even bigger in some cases. Everyone's cars at work have been written off. Row after row of cars with smashed windscreens and badly dented panels. My Vespa scooter was damaged. You can see in the last photo where the hail has punch holes right through the chassis. Unbelievable. As I rode home there were badly damaged abandoned cars all along the road. It looked like a war zone.

A lot of wildlife were impacted. I came across dead ibis, ducks and cockatoos. About 600 flying foxes were killed, many had holes in their wings. 

Just 10 minuets of absolute mayhem.






My pergola.






My glasshouse












My hot water system






Trees were all but defoliated by the hail






My Vespa. It had lots of other damage too.


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## Berthold (Feb 6, 2020)

David, that doesn't look well.

In Germany attempts were made to inoculate the large Cumulonimbus clouds with condensation cores by plane.
This reduces the size of the hailstones.


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## Ozpaph (Feb 7, 2020)

Nothing that bad up our way. Hope all get back to normal soon.......................................but a Vespa..........! LOL


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## emydura (Feb 8, 2020)

Ozpaph said:


> .....................................but a Vespa..........! LOL



Hey, I love my Vespa. It's a 300cc so it ain't a toy. I dare say I'd flog you off the lights.


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## Berthold (Mar 22, 2020)

The latest assumptions, climate researcher Friederike Otto, who heads the Institute for Environmental Change at the University of Oxford means: Man-made global warming has increased the risk of fire-threatening weather conditions, the so-called Fire Weather Index, by at least thirty percent compared to 1900.
I find it amazing how the risk was assessed in 1900 to find an underlying.


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## Stone (Mar 22, 2020)

Berthold said:


> The latest assumptions, climate researcher Friederike Otto, who heads the Institute for Environmental Change at the University of Oxford means: Man-made global warming has increased the risk of fire-threatening weather conditions, the so-called Fire Weather Index, by at least thirty percent compared to 1900.
> I find it amazing how the risk was assessed in 1900 to find an underlying.


I am very very worried about this finding! It sounds very scientific!


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## Berthold (Mar 23, 2020)

Stone said:


> I am very very worried about this finding! It sounds very scientific!



Yes, this number "30%" was created by mental force not by science, to satisfy the politicians who pay for research work. That is why politicians only accept quantitative answers to justify their activity.


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## Stone (Mar 23, 2020)

Berthold said:


> created by mental force,.


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## Ray (Mar 24, 2020)

Yes. 99.37% of such data is assumption.


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## Berthold (Mar 24, 2020)

Ray said:


> Yes. 99.37% of such data is assumption.



I agree with this assumption 

We don't build our house on guesswork but on a solid foundation.


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## Stone (Mar 24, 2020)

Ray said:


> Yes. 99.37% of such data is assumption.


It's not data Ray, it's mind farting. Like when historical temperature records are altered for various reasons and then used as the ''correct data'' and using this to make claims about records and predictions when in actual fact it is no longer data it is now garbage. The proper scientific way to do this is to add error bars on the original data and to clearly state your reasons for doing so. Not change anything.


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## Berthold (Mar 25, 2020)

I agree, Mike.
Data without an error bar has no scientific meaning anywhere. They are only suitable for marketing or propaganda purposes.


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