In short, the number of hobbyists compared to 20 years ago has been divided by 50 or more. Real serious collectors of orchids are even much rarer.
In the 90's and early 2000's, there were a lot of orchid nurseries that were started as an expensive exotic dancer, out of other activities. California nurseries, you had the millionnaires, the real estate brokers, the MGM shareholders, etc... that had their orchid nursery, many famous ones in fact. So they did not need to be profitable at all as well. A flock of hobbyists existed, and a vivid orchid scene.
It is very certain that nearly all growers are selling maybe 10-20% of what they used to sell 10-15 years ago, no matter what some delusional individuals might claim... Many newly started business will sell 100% of what they produce, for some months, or maybe a couple of years, then when they scale up, they crash. People who wanted this and that have it, so there are no more customers. It is very common.
As an example, Paph bellatulum, 800-1000 plants were covering the EU market for a year about, in the early 200s. Now, there are stocks of 20-30 plants by a couple of nurseries, virtually unsold, and very few in orchid hobbyist collection around Europe, after all.
Many businesses that were buying species by 200-500 plants/species in Europe and the US are down to buying 10-20 plants, big maximum, per species. I saw orders passing for 5 of this species, 10 of that species, wholesale prices. Of course it is not interesting at all to supply.
At this game it means as well that it is not at all profitable to make an orchid species nursery anymore. There are many people who 'want' plants on Internet and Facebook, but when they are available, the number paid really and purchased are in the single digits.
Paph rothschildianum, when the 50, maybe 100 US hobbyists who want plants in the US will have enough, a few plants from a few crosses, minus those they killed, the market is very, very full for several years.
That's the mistake of many nurseries too, they get a species/propagate it and suddenly get 20 orders x 1 plant or the like. Great success! Well, no because the remaining plants will occupy space in the greenhouse for the next 2 to 10 years and they become very toxic. I visited a couple of German growers, they kept/repotted all the unsold plants religiously. Now about 2/3 of their nursery is filled with things that are for some really beautiful, many are OK or ugly, but that they will never, ever sale. Each year costs them money, and some plants in 12cm pot have easily a growing cost of 20-25EUR, as they are there for a decade, repotted, handled, etc... from time to time. They are worth maybe 12-15eur. That's what kills many businesses, unsold stocks.
Paph sanderianum is very rare in the trade, not because it is not available, but if 10 adult plants can be sold in the US per year on average today, that is a big, big maximum. Many people who wanted it got it already.
Many Facebook profiles say they want so badly to buy manymanymany, and so many people want it. Say 'here it is 150us for an adult plant', and those 'potential customers' disappear overnight. Real life and real business are not predictable by forums or Facebook, and a few sometimes make a lot of noise, that seems to be a huge crowd of potential hobbyists or customers, but there is nothing behind. Or maybe sanderianum at 12-15us adult would sell a bit more, but not even so many...
There are stocks of BS sanderianum in several EU and Taiwan, Japan nurseries, they can't get rid of them.
Problem they are not interested to get a 'pro' order from the US or Europe to buy a huge wholesale quantity of 10 plants of sanderianum x 40us. Only the time of reading the email is making them lose money even! And if they try to charge more, no trader/nursery would be interested to import and resell.
I have a better future doing limited editions of some pot plant crosses, begonia, etc... than making species for sure, which I do because I love them, but that is not a commercial reason.
So most of the nurseries who have motherplants can't afford to make their own crosses and propagated them, 200 seedlings per cross already floods completely the EU and US market. There are a few exceptions, but they are more pot-plant/decorative plants.
Plants are available for cheap in Taiwan, and Thailand, and they can buy from brokers ( rarely from the actual nurseries anymore, except friendship), as a kind of backyard growers/traders. Ready to use and resell, whether they are the real thing or not. That's what the future brings us.
As for new growers taking the lead, I would say that definitely no. Those days are fully gone in the US and Europe. To select really top quality plants, one needs to grow a lot of seedlings per cross, with their own parent plants. There will be highly specialized operations, but never again the size of the Orchid Zone, Stewart, or the likes, in terms of surface, number of varieties, and number of plants produced and sold. This is simply impossible.
The scary part is that I see for the future more 'swappers' who buy this and that from Taiwan or Thailand, sell it, and nearly never grow the plants themselves, become the trend. No experience in orchids, just the nice photos and let's sell with a profit. There are more and more of this type around.
