Yep! But in some cases, you increase your chances for luck…. I asked Hadley Cash, after a Paph presentation (where he showed incredible new things for the first time), what he had on his sales table that that he’d shown a photo of in his presentation. I got the last seedling he had of Paph (Alex Szabo ‘Pure Gold’ x Hsinying Gold ‘Monarch’). He told me Harold Koopowitz had visited his greenhouse and suggested he cross those two plants! Well, that was a no brainer!! So my seedling is the one Hadley said is a solid AM on its first bloom! And when I sent him the pollen, he used it and registered the cross as Sunlight Serenade. I had to name my plant for him to use the pollen. I named it ‘Elation’ because I didn’t know much at that point, (and still only know a bit more) but when I saw the flower, I knew it was special. So certain breeders use exceptional parents and that definitely increases your odds, but there still is an element of ‘crap shoot’ with seedlings.
I have one of Hadley’s remakes of Paph Austin Cash. Probably another year from blooming and I almost killed it and had to rehab it, but I eagerly anticipate it’s first bloom. Patience!!!
Funny thing is, I’m not a gambler and hate that type of thing, can’t stand Las Vegas. But on a bet with those odds, I’ll jump.