My two cents worth

[ehanes7612]

It was that way here as well 2 or 3 years ago. But not now. Before when almost every plant would sell for at least a minimum bid amount the averages for the seller worked in their favor. But now the majority of plants pass through unsold most times of the yeaar. Now Ebay collects fees for these unsold listings. Now ebay charges the seller the sales commission on shipping costs as well and shipping costs are very high now.

For hobbyists ebay is a good way to sell plants but if you are trying to be a quality small nursery and abide by all the laws and rules and do what it takes to keep customers satisfied and provide quality plants you can't afford to sell on ebay. If you do efficient cost accounting and track and include all of the actual expenses at the end of the year you will see that you loose money selling on ebay in the USA.

i think any business needs to exploit all avenues of selling venues...ebay, shows, orchid forums, website, etc.....i would say that ebay is in the middle as far as costs...shows are very expensive for vendors and retail outlets are costly too..so i still feel ebay is one of the best options for sellers

 

[gonewild]

this is why i presented a calculation based on proportions, the cost per plant would be the same no matter how big the GH (actually, heating would be less per cubic foot for larger GH's because of lower Surface area to volume ratios)..and simply because what grower brings all their plants to BS (some get sold, some die off )...and im not counting other overhead costs, just those that are 'required' for maintenance...all those other costs (labor , marketing, wholesale purchase) are less important to hobbyists. (i am not trying to make the point that commercial gh's can lower their costs, i am sure most of them do the best they can)

I get what your saying about producing hobby grown plants and am not trying to discourage you but you started by implying that $40 was too high a price for a BS hybrid so let's consider some things.

Instead of presenting a calculation based on proportions using the total number of plants you should consider calculating the cost per plant based on how many finished plants are produced to a certain size in a given period of time.

In other words determine how many BS plants will be created in 5 years and divide that number into your $4500 cost.

How many BS plants will your 12'x15' produce per year?
How much space is reserved for breeding stock?
How much space is used for compots or 2" pots?
How much space is available for growing finished plants that would be sold or traded?

What happens if no one else thinks your hybrid is worth buying or trading? Where will you put the plants that don't leave your collection?
What about when a storm knocks out power and plants are damaged or die? These are just some things that you need to consider into your calculations if you want to compare your costs to costs of commercial growers. Heating is only a small part of the cost of growing although it may be the difference between profit and loss.

 

[gonewild]

..so i still feel ebay is one of the best options for sellers

Yes ebay is one of the best options...........and that is the big problem for commercial orchid growers. When one of the best options is not profitable?

 

[ehanes7612]

I get what your saying about producing hobby grown plants and am not trying to discourage you but you started by implying that $40 was too high a price for a BS hybrid so let's consider some things.

Instead of presenting a calculation based on proportions using the total number of plants you should consider calculating the cost per plant based on how many finished plants are produced to a certain size in a given period of time.

In other words determine how many BS plants will be created in 5 years and divide that number into your $4500 cost.

How many BS plants will your 12'x15' produce per year?
How much space is reserved for breeding stock?
How much space is used for compots or 2" pots?
How much space is available for growing finished plants that would be sold or traded?

What happens if no one else thinks your hybrid is worth buying or trading? Where will you put the plants that don't leave your collection?
What about when a storm knocks out power and plants are damaged or die? These are just some things that you need to consider into your calculations if you want to compare your costs to costs of commercial growers. Heating is only a small part of the cost of growing although it may be the difference between profit and loss.

and i will restate differently...i am not the one comparing costs(everyone else is)...i only provided my costs as a hobbyists to maintain my plants...i understand all the scenarios to growing commercially...my mentor was janice hanson of white river orchids (and i talk to other vendors too, i have done my research)..i know all too well what she went through, i visited her many times to talk shop..why i wont be a commercial vendor and why i am driving home the point home that multifloral plants arent commercially viable (she actually predicted that multiflorals and sandy hybrids would have a short lifespan for vendors)
vendors can price their plants whatever they want..but from what i am seeing they are too high in the US....and they arent selling (viably) at prices over 40 dollars a growth.....so do all the calculations you want, in the end its what the customer wants that is the real determination of price

also, in my calculations (albeit somewhat generalized) i took into consideration all the stages of the plant

 

[ehanes7612]

you know, nothing i am saying is new...there was a very good article on the state of commercial vendors and the trends they face posted not too long ago...i am just applying it to a select group of hybrids...if a seller wants to sell a hybrid in terms of what they think the plant is worth, all the more power to them...perhaps they will eventually get a buyer but the longer it sits, its commercial value drops and is mostly indicative of the commercial viability of the cross...there is probably some logarithmic equation that best describes this..i closely watch the ability to sell these types on ebay (its a great tool for this)...and i see the problem with this pricing that hurt the trade overall..it squeezes out novice growers who are seeing the purchase more as a risk assessment ...of course, multiflorals have no chance of reaching the stature of phals or integenerics but i cant help but feel that the pricing creates a doomsday scenario for multiflorals ...so either we lose out on these or encourage a different paradigm

 

[ehanes7612]

If someone want to do serious breeding must flower hundreads of plants of the same cross and have them in his place to be shure to have fresh flowers and pollen to go on and dont loose the opportunities...flower 10 or 20 plants each is not breeding...so its better to go buy flowered plnts and cross them just for fun and produce some more seedlings to save on future purchases and have the pleasure to see flwering a cross done by yourself...fun...nice...passionate....but not real breeding.

and this is a good point (and the similar point made by gonewild)...but as hybrids become more complex (multiflorals, sandys, brachys, etc and what i am more concerned with) the viability of seeds decrease exponentially...soooo, it becomes a game that hobbyists can play as effectively as commercial growers

 

[Stone]

Just how much does an out of flask paph seedling cost in Nth. america?
Here they're between $15 - $30. micranthum eburneum was $60 ( 1'' across )
And someone payed $96 for a venustum alba on ebay

 

[ehanes7612]

Just how much does an out of flask paph seedling cost in Nth. america?
Here they're between $15 - $30. micranthum eburneum was $60 ( 1'' across )
And someone payed $96 for a venustum alba on ebay

depends greatly on the cross...but i dont know anyone willing to buy out of flask individual seedlings in the US (compots are good) ...personally, i think its foolhardy to buy them and irresponsible to sell them

but we have it pretty special here ( thanks to a long list of dedicated hobbyists over the past few decades)...many opportunities to buy older seedlings of good crosses

when i started growing paphs in the nineties ...there were some really good growers who did their own hybridizing..and would sell flasks for cheap ( i bought sandy hybrid flasks 60 apiece from these growers in northern CA)...there was Bill Leonard in oregon, who would sell things he grew from seed at reasonable prices and only when they were ready to sell (and probably the best grower ever)... but like most good things...people saw opportunities to make profits and start gouging...great hybridizing is one thing but if you are squeezed out of the market by the pricing structure.....it only ends up hurting the trade (in my opinion)

 

[Stone]

When I say out of flask, I mean just established maybe 6 months.
It's really disapointing having to rely on a small handful of vendors and
receiving tiny delicate seedlings in your order planted in sub-standard mix
and having to baby them along fpr months! I dont grow hybrids but for species this is usually the reality.
Flasks are a much better option --when available-- and importing is out
of the question because they are gassed to death on arrival. Smuggle?:

 

[ehanes7612]

When I say out of flask, I mean just established maybe 6 months.
It's really disapointing having to rely on a small handful of vendors and
receiving tiny delicate seedlings in your order planted in sub-standard mix
and having to baby them along fpr months! I dont grow hybrids but for species this is usually the reality.
Flasks are a much better option --when available-- and importing is out
of the question because they are gassed to death on arrival. Smuggle?:

I have heard australia is tough on flasks
but you bring up another good point with people who sell, i stopped buying large plants from commercial nurseries, because the quality of plants was terrible (mushy roots, dessicated plants )....the price didnt justify the neglect of the plant...so this hurts the trade even more...
in places like australia where its difficult to find plants i can see the pricing based more on supply and demand...essentially you guys are just starting out. and from arguments i hear from other growers , the ability to change the bureaucratic rules is more effective once the establishment of a viable commodity exists...fortunately for the US, we were able to establish a good amount of pah multiflorals before the onset of CITES (or so i hear)

and smuggle? given the nature of people..i am sure its happening

 

[ehanes7612]

just so i am clear...i did say 40 for a single growth plant..obviously multigrowth plants are preferred and higher in value (and easier to sell)

 

[Leo Schordje]

I finally read this thread, and you guys are doing a lot of typing and not remembering the basics. If your think $40 is too much for a sanderianum hybrid, DON'T BUY IT. But it is the seller's right to set their own price, and for the vast majority of us, the price we set is based on what we need, our costs plus our need to have something left beyond paying the gas bill. Most of us are just trying to get by, not make a killing. As a hobby seller I resent the implication that there is something wrong with us if we feel that a plant is worth more than what you deem it to be worth. ( though I do know you don't mean this specifically at me, or anything directly personal about it, you have been a good customer of mine, and I too have bought some of your plants)

About production costs, think about it, you are in Seattle, your climate is mild, you don't have to put out much for heat, and just as important, most years you don't have to spend much on cooling, especially if you are near the coast. Here in Chicago area 4 to 5 months a year we are heating, and 3 or 4 months we are laying out a lot of $$ on cooling. When we are hot, we are also humid, evaporative cooling is not very efficient here, so extra capacity or alternate methods need to be used. Cost is very subject to local conditions.

Another separate note, if you base your business model relies on blooming the majority of seedlings of a multifloral hybrid from flask in 5 years or less, you are definitely going to loose money. In my experience, a small percentage of the seedlings will bloom quickly, maybe a couple, seldom more than a half dozen. The vast majority will bloom one or two years following the first, then finally the last 25% will straggle in, sometimes many years later, before they bloom. As a salesman, because the first might have bloomed only 3 or 5 years from flasks, we'll tell the customers "Oh yeah, it will take the about 5 years to bloom" or what ever number adjusting for the age of the seedling you are trying to sell. Reality is another matter. The only people who will say I am wrong on this are ones who have not actually raised a block of 100 or so plants from a single cross. One's and two's of a cross are not a good survey.

Right now I am sitting on about 150 Paph sanderianums from 5 different seed pods. The first couple of these bloomed only 6 years from flask, those were either sold at a fair price or set aside for future breeding. Not bad for a species. The plants I am trying to sell now are all near blooming size, 16 inch to 30 inch leaf spans, all single growths and all are between 7 and 9 years from flask. In my mind, a fair price for these plants would be in the $150 to $200 range, because of their age and size as all are in 4 x 4 x 5 inch pots which is 4 pots per square foot of shelf space. At $150 the 7 year old plants would be returning $21.43 per year and the 9 year old plants would be yeilding $ $16.67 per year. I don't think this is unreasonable or unfair given my costs. In reality I am experiencing resistance at $175 for "in bud" plants and resistance to $125 for blooming size seedlings. I am also sitting on a half dozen previously bloomed plants that I don't need for my purposes. I have been tossing more of the less than perfect of them, and the less than 'great' of the previously bloomed plants on the compost heap, rather than continue to give up bench space for them. So we have a situation where I need to get what I am asking, and the customers are not buying at the rate I had hoped for when I decided to bring a block of seedlings to bloom, rather than sell them off at the 6 inch leaf span size. It is not surprising so many orchid companies have gone under, and there will be more failures in the next couple years. Fortunately I don't have to rely on orchids to pay the mortgage, but if I did, I would have gone under in 2008. Depending on how pressed for space I get, I might have to have a 'fire sale' and dump some portion of them at a loss, or I will just resign myself to selling half a dozen a year for the next 20 years.

 

[paphioboy]

I have been tossing more of the less than perfect of them, and the less than 'great' of the previously bloomed plants on the compost heap

Sandies on the compost heap? I hope not...(!!)

 

[ehanes7612]

I finally read this thread, and you guys are doing a lot of typing and not remembering the basics. If your think $40 is too much for a sanderianum hybrid, DON'T BUY IT. But it is the seller's right to set their own price, and for the vast majority of us, the price we set is based on what we need, our costs plus our need to have something left beyond paying the gas bill. Most of us are just trying to get by, not make a killing. As a hobby seller I resent the implication that there is something wrong with us if we feel that a plant is worth more than what you deem it to be worth. ( though I do know you don't mean this specifically at me, or anything directly personal about it, you have been a good customer of mine, and I too have bought some of your plants)

About production costs, think about it, you are in Seattle, your climate is mild, you don't have to put out much for heat, and just as important, most years you don't have to spend much on cooling, especially if you are near the coast. Here in Chicago area 4 to 5 months a year we are heating, and 3 or 4 months we are laying out a lot of $$ on cooling. When we are hot, we are also humid, evaporative cooling is not very efficient here, so extra capacity or alternate methods need to be used. Cost is very subject to local conditions.

Another separate note, if you base your business model relies on blooming the majority of seedlings of a multifloral hybrid from flask in 5 years or less, you are definitely going to loose money. In my experience, a small percentage of the seedlings will bloom quickly, maybe a couple, seldom more than a half dozen. The vast majority will bloom one or two years following the first, then finally the last 25% will straggle in, sometimes many years later, before they bloom. As a salesman, because the first might have bloomed only 3 or 5 years from flasks, we'll tell the customers "Oh yeah, it will take the about 5 years to bloom" or what ever number adjusting for the age of the seedling you are trying to sell. Reality is another matter. The only people who will say I am wrong on this are ones who have not actually raised a block of 100 or so plants from a single cross. One's and two's of a cross are not a good survey.

Right now I am sitting on about 150 Paph sanderianums from 5 different seed pods. The first couple of these bloomed only 6 years from flask, those were either sold at a fair price or set aside for future breeding. Not bad for a species. The plants I am trying to sell now are all near blooming size, 16 inch to 30 inch leaf spans, all single growths and all are between 7 and 9 years from flask. In my mind, a fair price for these plants would be in the $150 to $200 range, because of their age and size as all are in 4 x 4 x 5 inch pots which is 4 pots per square foot of shelf space. At $150 the 7 year old plants would be returning $21.43 per year and the 9 year old plants would be yeilding $ $16.67 per year. I don't think this is unreasonable or unfair given my costs. In reality I am experiencing resistance at $175 for "in bud" plants and resistance to $125 for blooming size seedlings. I am also sitting on a half dozen previously bloomed plants that I don't need for my purposes. I have been tossing more of the less than perfect of them, and the less than 'great' of the previously bloomed plants on the compost heap, rather than continue to give up bench space for them. So we have a situation where I need to get what I am asking, and the customers are not buying at the rate I had hoped for when I decided to bring a block of seedlings to bloom, rather than sell them off at the 6 inch leaf span size. It is not surprising so many orchid companies have gone under, and there will be more failures in the next couple years. Fortunately I don't have to rely on orchids to pay the mortgage, but if I did, I would have gone under in 2008. Depending on how pressed for space I get, I might have to have a 'fire sale' and dump some portion of them at a loss, or I will just resign myself to selling half a dozen a year for the next 20 years.

i grew up in chicago and virginia, know the weather quite well...
the topic was about sanderianum hybrids...not sanderianum species...and while the implication of the economic viability of hybrids is heavily weighed on the costs of growing for the grower its not what drives the decision to buy...with all the considerations that goes through a customer's mind....people dont buy based on how much effort you put into growing...they buy based on their own desires and the potential of a specific bloom...if the seller is unwilling to consider the driving force behind sales (supply and demand , not grower struggles) then lessons are learned the hard way...in other words ...a customer's sympathies to a vendor only go so far

 

[ehanes7612]

Sandies on the compost heap? I hope not...(!!)

well, that's one way to control supply

 

[Leo Schordje]

i grew up in chicago and virginia, know the weather quite well...
the topic was about sanderianum hybrids...not sanderianum species...and while the implication of the economic viability of hybrids is heavily weighed on the costs of growing for the grower its not what drives the decision to buy...with all the considerations that goes through a customer's mind....people dont buy based on how much effort you put into growing...they buy based on their own desires and the potential of a specific bloom...if the seller is unwilling to consider the driving force behind sales (supply and demand , not grower struggles) then lessons are learned the hard way...in other words ...a customer's sympathies to a vendor only go so far

Yes, we are in agreement. I am not asking for sympathy. I am lamenting (perhaps a little resentful of) what I consider the 'Wal-Mart' effect that has occured in the perceptions of the orchid buying customer base. Production costs are the major component a business has to use to bench mark the minimum price for goods sold. If the customers perception of what an item should cost does not exceed the production costs, the business model is not viable. My decision to raise a block of seedlings was a bad decision. Fortunately I am not dependant on this for the food on the table, or the mortgage. However, I have had to severely cut back on my Saturday nights out for dinner at a restaurant. :evil:

There is no significant difference between selling the species sanderianum or its hybrids. Both sales efforts target a fairly narrow segments of the orchid buying market. The two segments over-lap, but there are species people who would not buy a hybrid, and there are many who do not see the species as having any value over the hybrid.

This discussion has crystalized my thoughts about what to do with my plants that are not moving. I will not dump them on the market at fire sale prices, that would only perpetuate the perception that all orchids should be less than $20 in bloom. I will keep them, because I like them. I'll refine my selection of breeding stock as they come into bloom, or re-bloom for the second time. I will sell the one's and two's over the coming years to people willing to pay what I consider is a fair price. I think I have to set up another light stand for the basement orchid room. My carpenter hates what the humidity is doing to the wood frame of this house. Oh well. :evil:

This is a good discussion, it is the seller's right to set prices where they feel they need to. It is wrong for a customer to assume that because a price is higher than they want to pay that there is something less than honest about the seller. evil: honesty has nothing to do with price, some is, some ain't) It is the right of the customer to not buy a plant that they feel is over priced. Go to some other vendor if you don't like the prices, but do it politely. And finally, there is no rule. If a vendor can't sell a plant at the price they want, they don't have to have a fire sale. They can do what they will with the plants.

 

[ehanes7612]

Yes, we are in agreement. I am not asking for sympathy. I am lamenting (perhaps a little resentful of) what I consider the 'Wal-Mart' effect that has occured in the perceptions of the orchid buying customer base. Production costs are the major component a business has to use to bench mark the minimum price for goods sold. If the customers perception of what an item should cost does not exceed the production costs, the business model is not viable. My decision to raise a block of seedlings was a bad decision. Fortunately I am not dependant on this for the food on the table, or the mortgage. However, I have had to severely cut back on my Saturday nights out for dinner at a restaurant. :evil:

There is no significant difference between selling the species sanderianum or its hybrids. Both sales efforts target a fairly narrow segments of the orchid buying market. The two segments over-lap, but there are species people who would not buy a hybrid, and there are many who do not see the species as having any value over the hybrid.

This discussion has crystalized my thoughts about what to do with my plants that are not moving. I will not dump them on the market at fire sale prices, that would only perpetuate the perception that all orchids should be less than $20 in bloom. I will keep them, because I like them. I'll refine my selection of breeding stock as they come into bloom, or re-bloom for the second time. I will sell the one's and two's over the coming years to people willing to pay what I consider is a fair price. I think I have to set up another light stand for the basement orchid room. My carpenter hates what the humidity is doing to the wood frame of this house. Oh well. :evil:

This is a good discussion, it is the seller's right to set prices where they feel they need to. It is wrong for a customer to assume that because a price is higher than they want to pay that there is something less than honest about the seller. evil: honesty has nothing to do with price, some is, some ain't) It is the right of the customer to not buy a plant that they feel is over priced. Go to some other vendor if you don't like the prices, but do it politely. And finally, there is no rule. If a vendor can't sell a plant at the price they want, they don't have to have a fire sale. They can do what they will with the plants.

fair enough

 

[tocarmar]

I for one have to be very careful how much I spend on plants, ect. I am always looking for the cheaper plant, but that does not mean it is the better plant to buy!!

 

[nikv]

I think of orchid prices much the same way that I view the salaries of movie stars and star athletes. If someone is willing to pay it, then that is what they're worth. But for me, I imposed a budget rule eons ago. It used to be that I wouldn't go over $40 USD for an orchid. I have since raised that to $60. But I reserve the right to exceed that price on very rare occasions. The most I've ever paid was $100 USD for a Laelia anceps var. vietchiana from SBOS. Trust me, this one was worth it! I think an orchid hobbyist needs to learn to appreciate the beautiful flowers posted by others or enjoy the beautiful orchid in person at the show, just not always feel compelled to buy it. I know this philosophy has saved my wallet on multiple occasions.

 

[keithrs]

This corner of the orchid market is not based of supply and demand, its based off of being specialized items at a specialized grower/nursery grows, they set sales it to make profit not to get everyone that walks through there door to buy one. These are not your standard Phal. or grocery store orchids, They're plants that only reach a select few that want this type of orchid in there collection making them specialized items, there for the market has little to do with pricing. This is why Andy's or any other specialty grower asks a fair price thats set for there plants. On top of that.... your going to pay even more for a genetically proven plant. Would you pay $5,000 for a orchid that has proven record..... Someone will!!!