Granted, if the light is focused to a narrower beam, that restricts the angles and concentrates the photons, allowing a greater percentage to penetrate the surface.
Yes, the angle of incidence is a big factor. If the water surface isn't flat then far more is lost to reflection for this reason making lighting models very tenuous. Most LEDs have a focal spread of about 120o which means the beams strike the water surface at 60o from the vertical. Of course none of this applies to our plants :clap: